Israel and the United States appear to be betting everything on Iran. Given the current severe political and logistical constraints, the likelihood of another large-scale military operation like this in the coming months or years is extremely low—moreover, the US's core attention may be drawn to other conflicts, especially as 2027 approaches, when relations with China and Taiwan are particularly important. Given that this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Israel and the United States are clearly doing everything in their power to maximize the results of this operation—including attempting to cooperate with various parties to dismantle the Iranian regime from within. But what if the Iranian regime survives? What if it sets out to rebuild its strategic capabilities—including its nuclear program—after this operation? It is doubtful whether the US and Israel can again mobilize such a powerful military force for a new round of military operations. This creates a dilemma. Despite significant military gains, if this war fails to lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime—or at least fails to reach a surrender-like agreement where Iran relinquishes its nuclear and missile capabilities—it could ultimately lead to the re-establishment and increasing strength of the Iranian regime, with no effective means to stop it. Paradoxically, if this war fails to bring about regime change, it could, years later, actually bolster Iran's future power. The Iranian regime clearly faces enormous internal and external challenges, making recovery difficult. However, if the war ends in a manner similar to the previous rounds—even if such a possibility exists—the outcome could be drastically different from what is expected. Therefore, the key question is whether the US government will intensify its efforts to achieve the more ambitious goal of regime change. Or, rather than that, whether it will quickly reach an agreement to limit Iran's future military expansion—if such an agreement is even possible. Like a poker player betting all their chips in the pot.
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