In the past, US military intimidation has been effective. Why did it fail to intimidate Iran this time? There are two main reasons: One is Trump's eroded international credibility, which is evident to all. The other is the collapse of the credibility of the Israeli armistice agreement: • 1948: Teared up the armistice agreement and attacked Egyptian forces. • 1956: Teared up the Egyptian-Israeli armistice agreement and invaded Sinai. • 1967: Unilaterally abolished the armistice agreement and launched the Six-Day War. • 1982: Teared up the PLO ceasefire agreement and invaded Lebanon. Military intimidation is very effective against the surrender faction within a regime, but historical records show that Israel's "ceasefire is preparation for war." The US and Israel have used the armistice agreement as a tactical cover in the Middle East, and its credibility was bound to collapse eventually. Learning from the history of the Southern Song Dynasty, the court was essentially a struggle between the pro-war and pro-peace factions. Every regime has surrender factions, but Trump has effectively wiped out Iran's surrender faction.