Financial markets have extremely low lower limits and very high upper limits. Everyone thinks they are a financial expert, but in reality, they may just be a lucky monkey in a random experiment.

A prediction: Bitcoin will no longer experience bull and bear markets, nor will it exhibit clear cyclical patterns. Instead, it will be in a chaotic state composed of countless smaller cycles, which can also be considered a supercycle.

The difference between a good and a bad trader isn't the number of mistakes they make, but rather their attitude towards those mistakes and their position sizing. The worst traders are often the ones who make the most profits and the fewest mistakes over a given period. In every major stock market bull run, the best-performing funds are often the ones that suffer the most at the end. Even worse, in every bull market, some well-known fund managers have committed suicide due to the pressure of declining performance.

Trading Reflections: Why is it so difficult, almost impossible, to profit from both long and short positions in the long run? People tend to cling to preconceived notions. When faced with significant losses, they claim it was a long-term investment rather than accepting the loss. Stop-loss orders are already difficult to execute; opening a reverse position makes calm trading even less feasible. Therefore, maintaining a unidirectional mindset and implementing rational stop-loss orders for a period is already a success; the idea of profiting from both long and short positions simultaneously is unrealistic.

Yesterday, I listened to a podcast that mentioned a US study showing that, within five years of graduation, taller men and more attractive women from top universities earned significantly more. However, 10 or 20 years after graduation, appearance no longer became a major factor. Performance, leadership, and social networks became key determinants of salary and career advancement. The podcast also mentioned that psychological research suggests children with mild low self-esteem in childhood are more likely to succeed than those with high self-esteem. This is because those who lack early recognition strive to gain it through long-term performance and become more observant of the world in order to achieve it.

The development of socialist tobacco talent requires the support of overseas elites.

[Taiwanese Media: Taiwan Authorities Announce One-Year Blockade of Xiaohongshu] According to reports from media outlets such as the United Daily News, an official from Taiwan's Ministry of the Interior announced on the 4th that, citing reasons such as "failing to pass information security monitoring" and involvement in "fraud cases," the government will immediately suspend internet access to the mainland Chinese app Xiaohongshu, with the measure tentatively scheduled for one year. It is understood that Xiaohongshu has over 3 million users in Taiwan. Xiaohongshu has become a bridge for cultural communication between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

1. Small supermarkets usually sell tobacco, which requires a tobacco license. When you go to the tobacco bureau to apply for the license, they require a series of documents and conduct an on-site inspection to see if your business meets the requirements for selling tobacco. Then they'll tell you you need to wait in line for a limited number of slots. Which step do you think you could manipulate to get the tobacco license ahead of time? Answer: First, find the scoring criteria for tobacco license applications. Then, according to the criteria, provide false materials to give your shop a high score. However, false materials are easily detected during the on-site inspection. Therefore, the inspection team usually comes with 2-3 people. Find the ringleader, have a few companions, and find a way to distract the others. Give the ringleader a small bribe. They'll know what's going on, and as long as the lies aren't too outrageous, they'll usually turn a blind eye. Otherwise, if the score is too low or doesn't meet the standards, you won't get the tobacco license. 2. Urban management officers strictly prohibit you from operating outside your shop. If you do, they'll either make you pack up and bring it back, or they'll send a whole vehicle of officers to confiscate your stall. How do you deal with this? Answer: Don't approach those in charge; they're all permanent staff, their jobs are secure, and they don't care about a few coins. But the low-level patrolmen and errand runners are non-permanent staff; they don't care. A few cigarettes or alcohol will generally be overlooked, as long as there's no higher-up pressure. However, if you receive notification of a leadership inspection, you must cooperate. 3. What's the best gift to give when dealing with government agencies like the police station and market supervision bureau? Answer: Your little problem is basically insignificant and won't be a big deal. It's either a common economic dispute or a street brawl—the kind of thing you wouldn't even want to waste time going to the hospital for. Or it could be something as trivial as expired or non-compliant food. The police station and market supervision bureau can handle these kinds of things in a way that's lenient or severe. So, be polite, cooperate, and afterwards, give them a banner of appreciation. It's more effective than cigarettes or alcohol. They're mostly government employees, and they wouldn't dare accept anything else, but a banner means they can formally accept it, and they'll even take a picture of it. They'll remember your kindness, and next time they handle a case, they'll be a little more lenient with you. That little bit of leniency is enough.

[Shanghai Cyberspace Administration: Guided Platforms like Xiaohongshu and Bilibili to Self-Inspect and Clean Up Over 40,000 Pieces of Illegal, Irregular, and Harmful Information Including Those Provoking a Housing Market Downturn] On November 14, the Shanghai Municipal Cyberspace Administration, together with the Municipal Housing Administration Bureau and the Municipal Public Security Bureau's Cyber Security Division, launched a special campaign to regulate the dissemination of online real estate information. Since the campaign began, it has guided platforms like Xiaohongshu and Bilibili to self-inspect and clean up over 40,000 pieces of illegal, irregular, and harmful information including those provoking a housing market downturn and distorting housing policies. It has also dealt with over 70,000 accounts violating real estate regulations and over 1,200 live-streaming rooms violating regulations, and regularly issues governance announcements.

[Bitcoin Supply Exceeds 95% of its 21 Million Limit, Remaining Supply Expected to Reach Over a Century] On Monday, Bitcoin reached a psychologically significant milestone: 95% of its total supply was officially mined. This important moment stemmed from Antpool successfully mining block number 923,999, whose block reward included the 19.95 millionth Bitcoin.