Market Outlook
Expectations for Monday
Today is Sunday night, which is Sunday morning in the US. The US stock market will open tomorrow, and I believe the market's movement will largely depend on Monday's news and the market's performance after the opening.
News
Currently, the news is still within the "Trump 48-hour window," meaning Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum. This ultimatum should end tomorrow night in the Asian market, meaning we'll know around the market opening whether Iran will agree to a ceasefire. If this news emerges, I think it will boost the market.
If Iran doesn't announce a ceasefire, then the ball is back in Trump's court. He still has two options: First, even though Iran hasn't conceded, he can unilaterally declare victory and cease further fighting, in which case the market will continue to react according to the "TACO" expectation.
Second, Trump will indeed bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, which is the worst-case scenario. I expect this bombing to cause a market decline. However, if it doesn't immediately fall below 63,000, the situation isn't too bad.
US Stocks
Will Friday be the bottom?
On Friday, the price touched the lower boundary of the descending channel and rebounded in the last hour. After the market closed (5:22 PM), Trump suggested "potentially unwinding the war with Iran," which was suspected to be insider trading.
However, on Saturday, Trump mentioned potential bombing again, which was not reflected in the stock market (due to the market closing), but was reflected in the cryptocurrency market.
Therefore, only by combining the final conclusions of the news can we know whether the US stock market has bottomed out.
If a ceasefire occurs on Monday, and the rebound on Friday night confirms insider trading, then the market should confirm a bottom and rebound. US stocks and cryptocurrencies should rebound simultaneously. 6500 is confirmed as support.
However, if the intensity of the war escalates further on Monday, it will be very unfavorable for the market, and the buying at the end of Friday's trading session will be interpreted as a failed bullish counterattack.
In summary, the market is currently driven by news, and the role of technical analysis has weakened. We believe the market will sweep through 69 and then rebound. The sweep has already occurred, and a bullish divergence has appeared on the 4-hour chart, but whether a rebound can occur depends on news-driven factors.
Some analysts also believe that the market will further decline to 64000 before rebounding to the 80 range. I don't currently think it will happen.
Therefore, technically speaking, a rebound from 67300 is still more likely for me, but I also respect any subsequent reactions from the news.
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