Market Outlook
My market predictions were correct, but I'm not happy about it.
Another day, another drop.
I've been very busy this week and haven't had time to update the market. But the general direction is probably completely consistent with my previous views (from a week ago to a month ago), namely, the market will continue to fall after a mid-term rebound.
Although we also considered whether the mid-term rebound would continue above 97, 97 was indeed our point to clear our positions. We basically gave up on further operations afterward because we believed the risk of entering the market was far higher than the risk of missing out.
Currently, the market is testing the 80,000 level again in a short period. This is considered the last line of defense for the bulls.
If it breaks down, the next support is above 73,777, which is a retest of the bottom on April 7, 2025, thus completely disproving the last bullish basis of Credibull, Astronomer, and others.
If a rebound starts due to the government ending the shutdown on Monday, I think the market will first rebound to around 90,000, and then we'll observe whether it will truly fall to 80,000 or below after the rebound ends.
Although my general prediction was correct, I'm not happy about it because I know most people will lose money here. The industry's development will also come to a standstill.
Unlike Benjamin Cowen, I treat the cryptocurrency market as my life's work. Even if there are supposedly "bull markets elsewhere," I won't participate in those markets. Therefore, I can only wait for the market to bottom out before buying, while protecting my principal.
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