US Midterm Election Year: Can BTC Break the "Drop Then Rise" Curse? As the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, Bitcoin has recently encountered resistance at the $74,000 mark. However, another potential influencing factor is approaching: the US midterm elections. Analysts believe that although market attention is currently focused on the Middle East situation, historically, US midterm election years will also have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movements. CryptoQuant platform analyst XWIN Research, through in-depth analysis of historical data, points out that Bitcoin often exhibits a relatively regular price trend in midterm election years: a cycle of initial weakness followed by a rebound. Looking back at the midterm election years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin prices all experienced significant declines, exceeding 60%. However, within 12 months after the election, Bitcoin prices rebounded strongly, rising by more than 50%. This "drop then rise" price pattern is not accidental; it is closely linked to changes in the market environment leading up to the election. As elections approach, market uncertainty rises significantly, and investors, concerned about risk, lower their risk appetite. At this time, investors typically reduce their positions to mitigate potential risks. This large-scale reduction in holdings directly leads to a contraction in market liquidity, putting immense pressure on Bitcoin prices and causing them to fall. However, this midterm election year coincides with a bear market phase in Bitcoin's four-year cycle. This makes it difficult to attribute Bitcoin price fluctuations solely to election influence; the combined factors become more complex. Despite the increased complexity, it is undeniable that with escalating macroeconomic uncertainties and the impact of the US midterm elections in November, Bitcoin is likely to continue facing downward price pressure in the short term. Furthermore, historically, market rebounds after midterm elections tend to last longer than pre-election declines. From this perspective, a price drop in BTC during an election year may actually provide a relatively favorable entry opportunity for long-term investors. #Bitcoin #MidtermElection