Bitcoin has achieved a rare eight-day winning streak. Why is it rare? Regardless of the strength of the chart pattern, the last time an eight-day winning streak occurred was in November 2024, meaning it hadn't happened for the entire year of 2025. And it remains strong; whether it will end today is still unknown! Returning to the previous eight-day winning streak, the difference is that the previous one occurred during an uptrend, while the current one is a rebound within a weak market. There's a significant difference between the two. An uptrend signifies extreme strength, the starting point of a bull market, and continued momentum in an uptrend. A rebound during a downtrend is more about filling gaps, and each high point encounters significant resistance, resulting in insufficient continuation. Therefore, we can clearly see that the eight consecutive days of gains on the daily chart are mostly periods of consolidation! The price broke through 74,000 and continued to rise to 76,000, a point I emphasized yesterday. 73,800 was resistance, while 74,000 was the acceleration point, representing a short-term momentum of 500 points and a daily momentum of over 1,000 points. This was reflected in the daily chart as a continued rebound after the opening this morning, ultimately falling back nearly 2,000 points to around 76,000. The daily chart shows an initial rise followed by a fall, making the upcoming support level a crucial test. If the decline continues, today's positive candlestick will likely be interrupted, and the probability of a renewed downtrend will increase. Remember, in a weak market, top signals indicate that the downward momentum is much stronger than the upward momentum. Since it's a series of consecutive positive candlesticks, the bottom support cannot be broken. Even if it is, it should only be a false break, and the closing price must recover. Even if a large positive candlestick doesn't appear, the positive candlestick pattern shouldn't be interrupted. Today's opening price of around 74,800 is critical; this point will be the battleground between bulls and bears throughout the day! The four-hour chart shows a steady upward trend, but this morning's bearish candlestick will be a crucial indicator. This differs from last night's bearish candlestick, which closed below 74000 and was subsequently suppressed. This morning's candlestick, however, shows a pullback after stabilizing above 74000. The afternoon session is critical. If the bearish candlestick pattern continues, the probability of further gains tonight is low, and the overall chart will likely end with a bearish candlestick. Conversely, if it shows a pattern of initial decline followed by a rise, turning from bearish to bullish, it suggests further highs tonight! After this analysis, we look at key support levels. On the daily chart, the reference point is around 73800, the highest resistance level from the previous few days' rebound. This is currently a minor top-bottom reversal, not a major support level. Of course, if Bitcoin were in an extremely strong uptrend with eight consecutive bullish days, I would go long at this level without hesitation. However, the situation is different, and I believe a more cautious approach is needed. Furthermore, today's pattern of an initial rise followed by a fall further complicates the situation. Conversely, in a scenario of an initial fall, going long is a more logical and prudent approach! To find a solid support level for long positions, we need to pay attention to the starting point. Last night's pullback low was around 73000. This level cannot be broken; if it is, today's candlestick pattern will be weak, and even if there is further upward movement, the momentum will be limited. On the four-hour chart, after the initial break below 74000, watch the low around 72800. The overall trend structure has formed a central oscillation with a pattern of rising lows. Based on the support of the upward trend line, we have finally found a suitable entry point for long positions around 73300. Firstly, the stop-loss risk is easy to control, as it can be set below the previous day's low. Secondly, the profit potential is also good; a basic target of 1000 points is not a major issue. Therefore, considering all factors, I (Lao Xiao) believe this is a reliable and stable approach! Looking at the resistance levels, Lao Xiao's community already arranged a short position at 75800 today, which was the highest point this morning. We were fortunate to profit from the pullback. Going forward, we either need to watch for a downward move around 74800, or wait for the continuation of the upward momentum after a breakout. Based on recent price action and chart patterns, the potential for another breakout is expected to reach around 78000, at which point we can consider shorting for a pullback. As for the other levels, since you've already missed them, there's nothing we can do about it.
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