When I first entered the crypto world, I was a huge believer in using indicators to predict market tops. I considered it the holy grail of the crypto market: From the initial AHR999 Nine Gods Index, to later long/short funding rates, long/short ratios, lending rates on CEXs, and most recently, CryptoQuant's Spot Taker CVD. These indicators are updated periodically, and by bear markets, they're generally outdated. The market is constantly changing. In the initial four-year cycle, the supply and demand of Bitcoin (BTC) was heavily influenced by the halving, making the Nine Gods Index very useful, perhaps also because Bitcoin itself was in an upward trend, expanding from a niche market to a mainstream one. Later, with the emergence of derivatives, the market tends to move in the direction of least resistance. Therefore, the long/short ratio was essentially an inverse indicator. Now, with various arbitrage products in the crypto market becoming very mature, the long/short ratio has even become a positive indicator. Then, after October 11th, crypto liquidity plummeted, and lending rates, hovering at low levels, became less effective. Recent market movements have seen spot taker CVD consistently lag behind, but as you know, the price hasn't bottomed out yet. There's no holy grail, only constant change. This is compounded by market spikes, a large-scale hacking incident, and CZ's return to the Forbes list – indicators of a bullish to bearish market.
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