I recall that when I did my initial asset allocation, the logic was to use gold to hedge a portion of my cryptocurrency or USD asset portfolio against volatility. This was the logic behind the gold price surge and safe-haven appeal in January. The same principle applied to allocating to A-shares. Recently, I've realized, haha, there's really no such thing as a true hedging asset; they're all basically moving in tandem. Financial markets everywhere price instability, just with different instruments. If you don't research sectors in the A-share market, and only buy broad-based ETFs like the CSI 500 ETF, you're basically just continuing the market's upward trend. They might even react a day later. There's no hedging involved. Only cash truly hedges your portfolio.

The rise of $hype is attributed to the successive FOMO surges in gold, silver, SK Hynix, and crude oil. The introduction of the HIP-3 mechanism also capitalized on this global asset linkage. However, the introduction of HIP-3 occurred before the bear market began. At the current price of $38 and with current trading volume, entering now wouldn't yield significant profits. Expectations and actual business reactions have already been fully priced in, and the current overall trend remains bearish. But one advantage of $hype is that even at the top, it gives you ample time to exit. Therefore, I wouldn't choose $hype for shorting; the holding experience is somewhat poor. On the other hand, $ETH, with ETH/BTC now at the upper edge of its trading range, is safer to short.

Twitter timelines are becoming increasingly devoid of useful information. It's either "Ah, the world is changing," or "Something's happening..." Just tell me what's happening! After all, the world is constantly changing. This year, the Year of the Horse, is exceptionally fiery, and fire represents change. This year's changes will undoubtedly be the most significant in the past. Stop lamenting. Being in the financial markets means you should understand that the volatility brought about by these changes is a blessing in disguise. Gold fluctuates by 2 points every few days, silver by 5-10 points. BTC and ETH oscillate within a range of 5-15 points. When there's momentum, there are sharp drops of 20-30 points. This kind of correlated price action is rare even in past bear markets. What's the point of complaining? Get to work! Oh, so you're making money off Twitter traffic? Fine. The era of massive traffic is almost over, isn't it?

When the A-shares market surged, everyone was chasing it; when gold and silver surged, everyone was chasing them; when Hynix surged, everyone was chasing it; now it's crude oil. How is this any different from switching tracks every day during the altcoin boom? It's possible that in the end, the biggest profit comes from holding onto your coins. Trying to dabble in every market only to find that it's not as profitable as Bitcoin in the crypto market. Think about it carefully, the logic of speculation really is universal.

1/3 There are three types of bottoms in the crypto market: Technical bottom Policy bottom I told my friend this was the last time to buy the dip. 2/3 A trader's day: Morning: I'll definitely trade according to plan today. Noon: I can't miss this opportunity. Afternoon: This trade is just a trial. Evening: Why did I make that move? 3/3 A trader went to a temple to pray. He said, "Buddha, please let me make money." Buddha was silent for a while and said, "I can, but you must first learn one thing." The trader excitedly asked, "What?" Buddha said, "Don't move."

Yesterday's sharp drop was widely attributed to a liquidity crisis, but today's strong positive candle suggests a bull market rebound. Over the past week, the group has been calling for a bull market rebound at least four times. Each bull market rebound has been followed by a sharp reversal. The key question is: did you make money during this period of consolidation? Every market rally/decline is followed by a period of uncertainty. The amplitude of the consolidation gradually narrows. Once this narrowing reaches its extreme, another market trend begins. Tomorrow marks the start of a new solar term, and March will offer many more opportunities, but I will remember: we are currently in a bear market.

There's not much to say about the recent market; if you look at the candlestick chart upside down, it's a bull market. In Binance's candlestick chart settings, go to Invert View. Looking at it upside down helps curb the urge to chase rebounds. It's like during a bull market surge; you always think a big drop is coming, but when you look at the candlestick chart, it's risen so much, then the pullback is less than 15%, and it's already hitting a new high. That's the trend. The current downtrend is like that. If you can't stand the volatility, consider looking at contract grids. I've been running contract grids a lot lately. I adjust the grid parameters every two days; if you don't understand, go to Gemini. As for the endless AI content—how much money they made today, how much productivity they improved with AI tomorrow—I'm immune to it. Similar to the ubiquitous "Internet+" boom of the past, more content creators and providers have made traffic more expensive. But AI content is too politically correct; realism and a sense of human presence are the key to success in the end.

When I first entered the crypto world, I was a huge believer in using indicators to predict market tops. I considered it the holy grail of the crypto market: From the initial AHR999 Nine Gods Index, to later long/short funding rates, long/short ratios, lending rates on CEXs, and most recently, CryptoQuant's Spot Taker CVD. These indicators are updated periodically, and by bear markets, they're generally outdated. The market is constantly changing. In the initial four-year cycle, the supply and demand of Bitcoin (BTC) was heavily influenced by the halving, making the Nine Gods Index very useful, perhaps also because Bitcoin itself was in an upward trend, expanding from a niche market to a mainstream one. Later, with the emergence of derivatives, the market tends to move in the direction of least resistance. Therefore, the long/short ratio was essentially an inverse indicator. Now, with various arbitrage products in the crypto market becoming very mature, the long/short ratio has even become a positive indicator. Then, after October 11th, crypto liquidity plummeted, and lending rates, hovering at low levels, became less effective. Recent market movements have seen spot taker CVD consistently lag behind, but as you know, the price hasn't bottomed out yet. There's no holy grail, only constant change. This is compounded by market spikes, a large-scale hacking incident, and CZ's return to the Forbes list – indicators of a bullish to bearish market.

Why is everyone shouting "catching the needle tip"? It's like missing this opportunity means losing hundreds of millions and a lot of traffic. The upward momentum of the Bingwu year hasn't even ended after the start of spring. If it really bottoms out, there won't even be any motivation to buy. Through that suffocating drop three months ago, with its second and third tests, was there a big difference between buying at 80,000 then and buying at 83,000 on the second test? Just 3 points.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury addressed the plenary session on the first day of the World Government Summit on the theme “How do we keep the world connected?” “Supply chains are built over decades and cannot be rebuilt overnight. 2023 and 2024 were indeed very difficult. We saw many issues resolved in 2025. But aircraft engines remain the most difficult commodity to obtain.”