Surrender Sell-Off Observations: Three Signs a Market Crash Is Approaching
1. Bitcoin Implied Volatility (BVIV) is 88.55, approaching the peak of 105 during the FTX crash (Source: @volmexfinance)
2. Coinbase's daily trading volume reached its eighth highest ever ($3.34 billion). In terms of daily volume, this is approximately $62,000, equivalent to about 54,000 Bitcoins changing hands. The actual trading volume is likely higher per unit, as many of the highest-volume trading days in US dollars occurred at higher price levels.
3. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 15.64, at or below the lows of the March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash.
Margin calls are being issued. Forced liquidation may still be underway. This has characteristics of a capitulation sell-off, but a capitulation sell-off is likely a process, not something that can be completed in a single candlestick (unless an extremely long shadow appears!).
These situations can last for weeks or even months before a sustained low is formed.