Nasdaq's investment in Gemini is just the beginning. Most global exchanges are vying for market share. A rough estimate suggests that the combined revenue of centralized and decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges is already comparable to that of TradFi Exchange—even if it's comparable, it's still impressive. Everything happens on-chain. Early investors in centralized exchanges are likely to profit in the coming years, and the prospects for platforms like Hyperliquid will continue to improve as they release products and build network effects. https://t.co/CPPOj3zfqO

BTC's weekly chart shows a triple bearish RSI divergence—momentum is draining. This is why I've been talking about the next round of central bank liquidity stimulus. I've seen this play out in the stock market: divergences signaled vulnerability during the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis in 1998, the 2008 global financial crisis (when I was covering Asian markets—that's when I discovered it), and again in early 2020. This pattern itself isn't a sell signal; it's a warning that the trend engine is losing steam. The solution lies in macroeconomics. Bitcoin is a liquid asset. If policymakers open the spigot, the uptrend will resume. If they don't, the trend risks reversal. Key Point: Respect divergences, but be mindful of liquidity. Open spigot → rally. Closed spigot → reversal risk. My base case: The spice must flow.

Bullish liquidity atmosphere.

Liquidity still dominates the market, but cryptocurrency trading is beginning to be influenced by more noise, idiosyncrasies, and industry-specific drivers. 💡Since 2018, liquidity has explained approximately 80% of the movements of BTC and the top 200 indices. 💡However, after 2023, the rules of the game change: R² values weaken, while elasticity strengthens. In other words: the tape is noisier, but when liquidity arrives, volatility is more pronounced. New report released by @RealVision: "Heavy Now, Stronger Next" Cryptocurrency index data from @BitformanceTeam

Unpopular Opinion MSTR/BTC Ratio: Showing Similar Patterns as Previous Cycle

As seasonal weakness sweeps across the cryptocurrency market at the end of Q3, hype could reach new highs. Unlocked volume remained the hardest hit in Q4. While perpetual swaps dominate (over 80% market share), the real bright spot is spot trading volume, whose market share has risen from 2% to 11% over the past three months. Meanwhile, total value locked (TVL) has tripled to $2.1 billion. Annualized revenue: $1.27 billion MC/rev: 10.5x

Global liquidity is best understood as a perpetual refinancing machine. Debt continues to expand faster than economic output, which means liquidity must expand in tandem—otherwise the machine stalls. The solvency of governments, banks, and the entire financial system depends on it. The problem is that in the United States, debt growth is now outpacing liquidity expansion. This imbalance is becoming a more important indicator of systemic stress than the debt-to-GDP ratio ever was. This chart is not perfect. It only captures a narrow definition of liquidity—excluding short-term Treasury issuance and private lending pools. But it is still useful. It tells us when the financial system is stretched too far in one direction or another. When the ratio is high, excess liquidity fuels inflation. When it is low, funding pressures emerge, and risky assets become vulnerable. The last time the ratio fell to today's level was in September 2019, just before the repo crisis. For reference, US stocks were reaching record highs at the time. Within weeks, pressures in the pipeline forced the Federal Reserve to launch emergency repo operations. So what? This doesn't mean we've reached the end of the cycle. But it does signal fragility. If debt growth continues to outpace liquidity growth, we should expect funding pressures to re-emerge—and the market will become more sensitive to a collapse in collateral values. I don't see this happening. The spice must flow.

Over the past two cycles, Chinese stocks and Bitcoin have tended to rise in tandem. Now, thanks to a 6% budget deficit and monetary stimulus (not as large as during the COVID-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis, but still substantial—especially compared to the G7 excluding the United States), the CSI 300 Index appears to be joining the rally. The stock market's outperformance suggests that there's still more liquidity to come, and this cycle has more room to run.

Liquidity fluctuated in the third quarter and resumed in the fourth. Spice must flow.

The Next Game for Sovereign Wealth This chart shows the explosive growth in the blockchain staking market—the base layer of yield now exceeds $300 billion. I believe that in the future, sovereign wealth funds, tasked with protecting national prosperity, will become the largest holders of Bitcoin and its related sectors (such as mining)—not only as a store of value, but also as a pillar for grid optimization and energy balance in the AI era. At the same time, these funds will engage in large-scale blockchain staking operations, reaping the rewards of the on-chain token economy. In a world where AI replaces entire industries, staking revenue could evolve into an indirect universal basic income—a sovereign "digital dividend" redistributed to citizens. Just as oil royalties funded social programs in the 20th century, blockchain revenues may fund welfare and stability in the 21st.