Several highlights are noteworthy on the $MSTR chart this week: • Capitulation volume accompanied by a hammer candlestick pattern – this combination typically signals the end of a strong trend. • Multiple signals are clustered in the same area: the DeMark level, momentum mechanism, and key price threshold are all near $195. • Thin volume above, with virtually no structural resistance before the $285 area. • Even the MSTR/BTC ratio is showing signs of fatigue after a prolonged period of weakness. While this information doesn't predict future price movements, it represents one of the most interesting patterns for the stock in recent months. Sometimes, the market signals potential turning points long before events reach a certain point.

The dollar's trajectory is returning to normal—which ultimately depends on liquidity—otherwise, market conditions will remain challenging. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies maintain a high correlation with the dollar because the dollar serves as a benchmark for real-time liquidity. Currently, the market is signaling that whatever measures central planners intend to take (interest rate cuts, temporary repurchase agreements, adjustments to the statutory liquidity ratio), they will fall far short. The market will always force the Federal Reserve and the government to act. Liquidity must be guaranteed.

ETFs (green) and Bitcoin companies (orange) are starting to show inflection points. The former has a greater impact on prices; the latter continues to remain neutral/a drag. The risk-reward ratio is currently very favorable. @caprioleio's chart is fantastic!

Overall activity growth rate of smart contract platforms. In recent years, there has only been one year where cryptocurrencies were unaffected by regulation. Broadening the perspective.

Smart contract platforms are a new type of financial infrastructure. Despite their staggering scale, total fees are bound to rise—one of the biggest structural headwinds to price is beginning to recede as inflation approaches zero or even deflation. Meanwhile, adoption and tokenization are driving a powerful flywheel effect in decentralized finance (DeFi). Stablecoin payments are fueling increasingly non-cyclical settlement activity, making these networks look more like large tech companies—with growing and more stable cash flows. Metcalfe's Law tells us what this means for market capitalization expansion. As more and more L1 tokens are used for staking and DeFi collateralization, they form deep pools of collateral absorption, transforming them into efficient, yield-generating stores of value—measured in the same way we assess Bitcoin's monetary strength. They are increasingly attracting funds from traditional financial yield assets to DeFi, offering growth similar to large tech companies and sovereign bond-level yields. With the changing settlement volumes and the accumulation of value on-chain, the industry's next 3-5x growth depends on adoption, not hype.

The most important chart for me is this one.

Until now, cryptocurrency activity has been primarily driven by liquidity—when global monetary supply expands, prices and on-chain usage follow. This is because use cases have been driven by speculation; for example, spot trading, perpetual swaps, and store of value (SoV). However, since mid-year, stablecoin transfer volume has diverged from both blockchain fees and global liquidity. This is a structural shift. It indicates real economic use—stablecoins flowing in cross-chain payments, settlements, and commerce—rather than speculative flows. For the first time, a segment of the cryptoeconomy is showing signs of independence from liquidity cycles. This doesn't mean there won't be volatility or significant drawdowns. But trends are beginning to develop at their own pace. With the emergence of stablecoins and AI, we will see new blockchain uses, lower cyclicality, and an acceleration in the outperformance of leading networks.

As the cryptocurrency economy nears its end of the year, long-term investors should pay close attention. The three-year compound annual growth rate shows that network adoption is outpacing market capitalization growth. User activity has cooled this year, but capital, liquidity, and real economic activity have surged. As stablecoins and artificial intelligence drive exponential adoption, blockchain is evolving into a yield-generating system—rising real returns and falling inflation. Soon, staking yields and sovereign bond yields will converge. Governments will then face two choices: Tax machine transactions or staking returns. Either way, cryptocurrency will become the foundation of the AI economy.

The so-called "devaluation trade," likely first proposed by @RaoulGMI a decade ago, is now being championed by the biggest devaluers of currency: the commercial banks. But it's not a trade. It's a long-term game with central planning. Let's go.

With the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative tightening policy, central bank balance sheet tightening—a hallmark of this cycle—may be about to shift. This isn't a massive liquidity injection like QE, but it could still result in positive liquidity growth. The slight pressure in the repo market is a symptom of excessive collateral risk in the system due to accelerated debt issuance. Spice must flow.