The most important chart for me is this one.

Until now, cryptocurrency activity has been primarily driven by liquidity—when global monetary supply expands, prices and on-chain usage follow. This is because use cases have been driven by speculation; for example, spot trading, perpetual swaps, and store of value (SoV). However, since mid-year, stablecoin transfer volume has diverged from both blockchain fees and global liquidity. This is a structural shift. It indicates real economic use—stablecoins flowing in cross-chain payments, settlements, and commerce—rather than speculative flows. For the first time, a segment of the cryptoeconomy is showing signs of independence from liquidity cycles. This doesn't mean there won't be volatility or significant drawdowns. But trends are beginning to develop at their own pace. With the emergence of stablecoins and AI, we will see new blockchain uses, lower cyclicality, and an acceleration in the outperformance of leading networks.

As the cryptocurrency economy nears its end of the year, long-term investors should pay close attention. The three-year compound annual growth rate shows that network adoption is outpacing market capitalization growth. User activity has cooled this year, but capital, liquidity, and real economic activity have surged. As stablecoins and artificial intelligence drive exponential adoption, blockchain is evolving into a yield-generating system—rising real returns and falling inflation. Soon, staking yields and sovereign bond yields will converge. Governments will then face two choices: Tax machine transactions or staking returns. Either way, cryptocurrency will become the foundation of the AI economy.

The so-called "devaluation trade," likely first proposed by @RaoulGMI a decade ago, is now being championed by the biggest devaluers of currency: the commercial banks. But it's not a trade. It's a long-term game with central planning. Let's go.

With the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative tightening policy, central bank balance sheet tightening—a hallmark of this cycle—may be about to shift. This isn't a massive liquidity injection like QE, but it could still result in positive liquidity growth. The slight pressure in the repo market is a symptom of excessive collateral risk in the system due to accelerated debt issuance. Spice must flow.

In the end, the long-term equation comes down to this: the spice must flow.

Before this epic crash, the cryptocurrency market was far from euphoric. The long-term trends supporting these assets remain unchanged. 1. Exponential adoption of blockchain infrastructure will touch every industry. 2. A major devaluation is imminent. Watch the policy dynamics of central planners. The spice must flow. Bitcoin is the king of SOV and the dominant and growing L1 in the beta of exponentially growing technology. This is a risk-off reset. The game is not over yet.

When the biggest devaluers start selling “devaluation deals” to their clients, you know the zeitgeist has shifted dramatically.

Bitcoin's decline isn't mysterious; it's driven by macro factors. The dollar's rebound is tightening global liquidity. The US dollar index is retesting 100-101—a key resistance level and a natural mean reversion zone after one of the sharpest declines in decades in the first half of 2025. Short positions are already saturated, so the possibility of a rebound remains. The real question is: Is this the beginning of a new dollar cycle or the beginning of another downturn? Base case: Liquidity tailwinds and an improving business cycle will keep the outlook for risk assets bullish through mid-2026. 1/2 2/2

Bitcoin is at an all-time high. Bitcoin's cycle risk score is depressing. Neutral zone = euphoria has not yet set in. Continue reading.