Only 11 months left in 2026! What's your safe-haven asset?
This year, BTC is approaching its longest monthly losing streak in nearly seven years. Meanwhile, gold and silver have hit all-time highs, as if all funds have been shifted.
Risk assets are under immense pressure, and everyone is rushing to safe-haven assets. Actually, three things are happening simultaneously:
1. The pace of interest rate cuts. Trump has officially nominated Watsch as Fed Chairman. Trump's attitude towards interest rate cuts is clear: he wants them fast and low, even publicly stating his desire for rates to reach around 1%. But the Fed certainly won't cut rates just because the president wants them. 😅 If rate cuts are delayed or subject to more conditions, the market can no longer rely solely on liquidity. Naturally, funds will flow to so-called safe-haven assets, or, if you're feeling particularly risk-averse, short-term trading.
Large tech companies are continuously investing heavily in AI, right? Even we small investors are doing the same. But not only have we missed out on short-term profits, but now everyone's lamenting? So AI is no longer just a growth story; it's becoming a test of patience for us all. Should we go all in or pause?
3. Financial markets always carry risk. With credit spreads at rock bottom and risk appetite remaining high for an extended period, any sudden change could cause funds to retreat. It's not panic, it's balance.
Are safe-haven assets truly "safe"?
Many interpreted the beginning of this year as money returning to gold and leaving crypto.
But I think a more conservative approach is to say that money is only temporarily returning to "understandable assets"—gold, silver, even US Treasury bonds. These assets don't guarantee profits, but they have clear logic, a long history, and predictable volatility. When you're unsure whether your assets are turning red or green, the market tells you: you don't need so much explanation!
So what's left of Bitcoin?
I don't think Bitcoin is "failing." A Bitcoin pullback might symbolize a loss of liquidity in the crypto market, but then what's the point of our existence in crypto? If previous years were narrative years for crypto, this year feels more like a validation year. Not all assets will disappear, but they will certainly be stratified.
What am I thinking about for the remaining 11 months?
I won't use extreme terms like "all in to hedge" or "bottom fishing" to describe my portfolio allocation. The core idea remains unchanged: time + cash flow + not being bound by a single narrative. Finally, I want to leave a message for myself and for everyone reading this: When the world becomes more complex, investing cannot have only one answer.
2026 has just begun. Have you prepared a space for the increased uncertainty? Let's wait patiently for the flowers to bloom ❤️
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