BTC really does follow the declines but not the rises. It missed out on the gains of precious metals and US stocks, but reaped the full benefits of the declines. Yesterday, US stocks and gold recovered significantly, but BTC is still floundering.
My position was stopped out after it fell below 84.5K, a month's work for nothing.
If this were a range-bound market, a brief dip below 85K should have been recovered. However, Binance's BTC perpetual contract open interest has reached a new high since 1011, and LSUR is also approaching historical extremes. This data pattern is building momentum for a one-sided market. It might need a sharp drop like last November 20th before returning to a range-bound market, or the short sellers might not be able to push the price down and will withdraw, leading to a decrease in open interest.
However, it's unwise to gamble too much here; the current contract market data is very risky.
I open positions with 6-8x leverage per trade, so I'm taking a loss now. Quantitative trading generally doesn't use leverage, and my systematic positions won't be disrupted by this kind of market volatility, so I won't touch them.
Bitfinex is indeed still accumulating, but the technical chart looks terrible, so we have to respect that. The entry point on the left side was 85K; if it breaks below that, I'll exit.