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wdctll
meme玩家
12h ago
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美股现在整体走到了什么位置:参考美股场内杠杆指标,目前美股已经走到了杠杆泡沫化状态。从2025年6月开始,指标突破1个标准差,进入杠杆泡沫化的状态。目前接近2007年7月的状态,离2000年3月还有距离, 已经远高于2009年至今的历次中期顶部。进入杠杆泡沫化阶段后,走势主要受到资金面而不是基本面的影响。 一旦后续场内开始去杠杆,指标拐头,行情整体会进入中长期的下行状态。而且指标高点的值越高,对应去杠杆后的低值会越低。从这个角度看,这轮一旦向下,市场累计调整幅度很可能会比21年11月-22年12月的调整幅度更大。 $QQQ $NVDA $TSLA
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