Grayscale: Bitcoin Market Structure No Longer Follows the "Four-Year Cycle"; Current Bitcoin Market is More Driven by Institutional Capital, Rather Than Retail Speculation Dominating Past Cycles
On December 9th, according to Cointelegraph, Grayscale stated that the halving-driven Bitcoin pricing model, which shaped Bitcoin's early history, is losing its influence. As more Bitcoin enters circulation, the relative impact of each halving is diminishing, and the Bitcoin market structure no longer follows the "four-year cycle."
Grayscale points out that the current Bitcoin market is more driven by institutional capital, rather than the retail speculation that dominated past cycles. Unlike the explosive surges of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin's recent rally has been more controlled. Grayscale believes the subsequent 30% pullback is more like a typical bull market correction.
Interest rate expectations, progress in US bipartisan crypto regulation, and the trend of Bitcoin being integrated into institutional portfolios are increasingly shaping market trends.