Regarding the question of whether the 4-year cycle still exists, I discussed several points with friends today, and I welcome any corrections: 1. According to some BTC whales, in past experience, a portion of long-term BTC holders have engaged in high-frequency trading during bull and bear market cycles, with the amount of BTC changing hands accounting for approximately 30% of the total BTC supply. 2. Currently, Wall Street's holdings, including DAT and ETFs, account for about 12%, and growth has been slow since reaching new highs, even showing slight signs of outflow. 3. Based on points 1 and 2, the existence of the four-year cycle in the industry has a self-fulfilling effect. Crypto investors still hold significantly more tokens than Wall Street's "diamond hands." When BTC holders trade according to the 4-year cycle, a bear market is almost impossible to reverse. 4. Only when a sufficient amount of tokens (>30-40%) are washed into the hands of institutions that do not believe in the four-year cycle will this cyclical pattern gradually be broken. 5. Because of the participation of Wall Street and "diamond hands," the maximum drawdown in this round of BTC will be significantly smaller than the previous cycle (-78%). As for the exact amount, it's hard to predict. In my humble opinion, starting with a tiered buying/dollar-cost averaging strategy from -50% would be a very healthy approach. 6. As for whether BTC can surge again and challenge $150,000 after the December rate cut and in the first half of the year, it depends on fate. Trying to catch the tail end of the rally is too greedy. 7. Finally, I'm not sure if I should say this, but when the absolute leader in an industry (or rather, the largest segment of the industry) adheres to the philosophy of "daring to be second to none," then we will find it difficult to break the four-year cycle curse, because we are unworthy of it...