People often overlook more important signals due to excessive noise. This time, the rise from 110k+ BTC and 4100 ETH to 84k/2700 took approximately 24 days, and two significant signals were overlooked:
First, consider the origins of this bull market. Unlike previous bull markets, particularly leveraged ones, the driving force behind this bull market is fundamentally different. It's dominated by DAT asset allocation and the entry of TradFi through ETFs and other tools. The biggest impact of this shift is that pricing power in crypto assets has largely transferred outside the crypto sphere.
Therefore, the October 11th market crash dealt a heavy blow to altcoins, but had a relatively weak impact on BTC/ETH. The main decline occurred after October 11th, with even mainstream coins trading far below their intraday lows. Those significant signals from outside the crypto sphere that truly touched upon the fundamental drivers of this rally were severely underestimated by the market and deserve continued attention:
These are the sell signals for IBIT and DAT. IBIT's first major sell-off recently occurred on October 20th, while DAT's first $ETH sell-off was on October 28th. However, just a month ago, we were constantly watching the large buy/sell orders on Hyperliquid (the so-called insider traders), yet few were warning of the risk of outside funds dumping their holdings.
First principles: the flow of funds and supply and demand. Reviewing these fundamental principles will help clarify our thinking in future judgments. Thanks to @0xEdwin999 for their help with some data collection and analysis. Continuously updating ✍️ 🧵