How far are we from AI/AGI and humanoid robots?
I believe we're far from approaching the singularity, and I shouldn't be blindly optimistic. However, we can be quite optimistic that the era of AI and robots has begun, allowing AI/Agents and scenario-based robots to maximize efficiency in structured data environments. The so-called new round of productivity revolution is beyond doubt; the only questions are how to achieve alignment and experience optimization. Today's artificial intelligence isn't much of a bubble.
This is similar to the early days of the internet—finding real-world business scenarios, accumulating data, and forming a closed loop of technology, products, and business. In fact, Microsoft and Intel saw the nascent internet era in the PC/server workstation era, and Bill Gates wrote "The Road Ahead" in 1997, asking how far away the information superhighway was.
Fifteen years later, the mobile internet revolution led by Apple, Google, and ARM, with its Photos, Location Base, and social networks on mobile phones, catalyzed an exponential increase in data across all business scenarios in our lives. Thus, the statement "The Internet changes the world" has truly come to fruition. Looking back at the vanguard of each technological revolution, it was always the native tools of the new technological paradigm that paved the way—such as spreadsheets, web browsers, search engines, and today's AI programming and graphics tools. Then came Amazon, Uber, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo—each representing a completely new business scenario arising from internet applications in different eras. What remains constant is the focus on basic necessities like food, clothing, shelter, transportation, and the cycle of birth, aging, illness, and death. From an economic perspective, the current era of artificial intelligence and robotics should exhibit similarities across generations.
Today, the pioneers of new technologies have shifted to OpenAI and Nvidia, but those who truly profit will inevitably be the companies that find viable commercial applications.