Regarding our position in the cycle, to me, the story is simple. One factor trumps everything else, including your favorite liquidity and technical indicators. That's artificial intelligence. If the AI bubble bursts, it's all over. If AI continues to rally, all the bears are wrong. It's never possible to predict cycle tops or bottoms with 100% accuracy, but from what I can tell, we're in the danger zone. (I've been collecting top signals and tweeting about them for the past month.) Yes, we could experience a powerful rally similar to the one from October 1999 to March 2000, but the yield/reward for the largest longs will be very low. A helpful mental model is that cycle tops and bottoms aren't points in time or price levels, but rather a spectrum of risk. I'll stay invested because high risk doesn't necessarily mean we have to go down. But at the same time, it's perfectly okay to significantly reduce risk as the risk spectrum widens. (Incidentally, I hold about the same amount of cash now as I did at the peak of the cycle in 2021.)