Bitcoin's decline isn't mysterious; it's driven by macro factors. The dollar's rebound is tightening global liquidity. The US dollar index is retesting 100-101—a key resistance level and a natural mean reversion zone after one of the sharpest declines in decades in the first half of 2025. Short positions are already saturated, so the possibility of a rebound remains. The real question is: Is this the beginning of a new dollar cycle or the beginning of another downturn? Base case: Liquidity tailwinds and an improving business cycle will keep the outlook for risk assets bullish through mid-2026. 1/2 2/2