Tonight is a life-or-death battle. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM tomorrow. Tonight's key points are actually quite simple. I'll break them down into sections to explain my personal understanding. "25bp Rate Cut": The CME indicates a 96% probability that the market is expecting a 25bp rate cut. This is already fully anticipated, and a "good news" market may emerge. Bitcoin saw a short-term decline on the day of the 2019 rate cut. Following the December 2024 rate cut, Bitcoin saw a 30% correction within a few weeks. More importantly, whether Powell's subsequent remarks remain dovish or maintain the Fed's independence and prepare for a hawkish stance will have a different impact on the market. I personally expect a period of volatility or a correction after this rate cut, followed by a steady upward trend over the next few weeks. "50bp Rate Cut": The CME shows only a 4% probability of a 50bp rate cut. The only reason for a 50bp rate cut now is the rapidly deteriorating job market. If a 50bp rate cut is seen as a policy shift, indicating the Fed's willingness to provide more liquidity, short-term investors, fearing a recession, may initially sell for safety. Subsequently, the market anticipates longer-term rate cuts and potential quantitative easing, and funds may flow back into the bitcoin market. "No Rate Cut or Rate Hike": These two scenarios are virtually impossible, but there is a 0.1% chance that no rate cut will occur. Maintaining or raising high interest rates will curb liquidity. This also suggests that the Fed remains concerned about inflation, prompting the market to reprice the path of future rate cuts. The market will plummet, searching directly for support. If a rate hike occurs, it goes without saying that Powell will go down in history! In fact, at this point in the bull market, I still believe it's better not to bet on the tail end of the market. Instead, wait for the situation to become clear before investing. Once the money is in your hands, it's yours. The market presents opportunities every day. Once the trend becomes clear, a steady, long-term investment is a wise investment. #Expectations of a Fed rate cut rise #BTC #ETH