BTC's weekly chart shows a triple bearish RSI divergence—momentum is draining. This is why I've been talking about the next round of central bank liquidity stimulus.
I've seen this play out in the stock market: divergences signaled vulnerability during the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis in 1998, the 2008 global financial crisis (when I was covering Asian markets—that's when I discovered it), and again in early 2020. This pattern itself isn't a sell signal; it's a warning that the trend engine is losing steam.
The solution lies in macroeconomics. Bitcoin is a liquid asset. If policymakers open the spigot, the uptrend will resume. If they don't, the trend risks reversal.
Key Point: Respect divergences, but be mindful of liquidity. Open spigot → rally. Closed spigot → reversal risk.
My base case: The spice must flow.