If you have ETH in your position or are considering buying ETH, I highly recommend that you read this post. This is my framework for thinking about position allocation in the Ethereum and Bitcoin major cycles. I have noticed that there are no longer many bloggers in the market who are bullish on ETH recently. Most of them have given up or even turned black fans. However, I believe that this is actually the golden point for this cycle to buy ETH at the bottom. Here is my logical framework and factual data:First of all, let's talk about the known facts. If you have carefully read the exchange rates of ETH/BTC in the last two cycles, you should know that during the bull to bear cycle from 2017 to 2019, ETH was more FOMO at its high point (the highest exchange rate reached 0.16), and even more desperate at its low point (the lowest exchange rate dropped to 0.016). ETH/BTC fell from its high point of 0.16 to 0.016, a drop of 90%; The exchange rate of ETH/BTC in the 21-24 period fell from a high of 0.088 to 0.039, a drop of 56%, which is relatively strong compared to the "FUD ETH" in the 2019 period. If you have studied the rising rhythms of altcoins and BTC in the previous cycle, it is not difficult to find that BTC led the rise of altcoins for most of the bull market, and BTC dominance continued to rise until the end of December 2020 to reach its high point. However, the violent rebound of altcoins on BTC only occurred in the middle and late stages of the bull market, that is, from the end of December 2020 to the end of April 2021 (in my impression, the blue chip that could outperform BTC at the beginning of the previous bull market was the only one). Link). The logic behind the phenomenon of ETH and BTC exchange rates during a bull market cycle is actually very simple. In the early stages of the bull market, there is not enough "water" to allow everyone to truly play the CX game of the public chain. Taking Solana's pump as an example, if the speed of new funds entering the pool cannot keep up with the speed of previous withdrawals, the plate will quickly disintegrate. In the later stages of the bull market, when the currency is loose enough to flood the mountains, the layers of nested dolls and various game games in the public chain become the best place to absorb this water.If you agree with my above logic, then you need to ask yourself two questions:Do you think there will still be a time when monetary easing floods the golden mountains? (If the answer is no, I think you may not be familiar with modern monetary theory; you should not touch any altcoins, and even the thesis of buying BTC is untenable.)2. If you think there will still be monetary easing flooding the golden mountains, which public chain do you think has the highest probability of withstanding the most water? Which public chain game and nesting game do you think is the most fun, has the most new things and wealth creation effects, has the smoothest experience, and users are most willing to goMy answer to the above two questions is:1. I think there will still be a time when interest rates have not yet started, why rush?2. I think both ETH and SOL will take over, but personally, as a user, my experience at ETH is better; ETH ETF opens up new channels for new funds; Defi has a stronger ecosystem, is more likely to attract large funds, and is more likely to spiral upwards in terms of nesting; Compared to SOL, ETH currently offers a larger discount in the market. Based on the above viewpoint, I have a larger position allocation on ETH, but I also hold a position in SOL because I believe SOL is likely to take on some of the water. (I don't know if TON will have the potential in the future, as its infrastructure, user experience, and ecosystem are far from meeting the standards of what I consider a "public chain value bet". However, I believe TON has this potential, so I am willing to change my opinion after seeing more things in the future.)Let's compare the previous cycle again. Below is a candlestick chart of the ETH/BTC exchange rate and a purple line chart of the BTC price trend. You can take a look at the core support levels of the two cycles of the ETH/BTC exchange rate (which I have drawn with a green line), one is 0.025 and the other is 0.05. In my opinion, the break of the core support points of these two cycles is an Investor Capital event, and both support points break during the early stages of each bull market (the previous round was broken by BTC at 13000, while this round was broken by BTC at 68000). After that, the exchange rate continued to fall by 34%, and after this round broke, the exchange rate has already fallen by 23%. Considering that the fluctuation of this round of exchange rate is narrower than the previous round, So in my opinion, it's time to start buying at the bottom or allocate more positions from BTC to ETH (but please don't throw another batch of 20x into it)Also, a reminder to everyone! The trend of the cryptocurrency industry is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. Investors should fully understand the relevant risks when participating in cryptocurrency investments, remain calm and rational, and respond to market changes with a prudent strategy!