Filecoin (FIL) is attempting to stabilize after several sessions of weakness, with price action on the daily chart showing a slow but steady effort to reclaim lost ground. 

The latest series of closes—from a dip beneath $2 to a recovery back above it—signals that bearish momentum has cooled, but conviction on the upside remains muted. 

The interplay between short-term moving averages, momentum indicators, and major order book walls now sets the tone for what could be an explosive move in either direction.

Short-Term Trend Shows Early Signs of Recovery—But Momentum Remains Soft

The crypto remains positioned slightly below its short-term trend levels, indicating that the market is still in a cautious recovery phase. Even though the price has been pressing closer to the 9-day EMA, it has not convincingly broken above it, which signals that buyers are not fully in control yet.

Daily chart for FIL/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)

However, the flattening EMAs show that the downtrend is losing strength. Sellers are no longer dominating, and the market is moving into a neutral-to-constructive posture. This is supported by momentum readings that remain close to the midline—showing neither strong bullish acceleration nor a renewed bearish downturn. 

Essentially, FIL is attempting to carve out a base, but buyers still need to demonstrate real strength before a breakout can materialize.

FIL MACD and RSI Are Neither Strongly Bullish nor Bearish

Momentum indicators paint a picture of indecision. The MACD line has gradually pulled back toward its signal line, reflecting fading upside momentum after its early-week push. This isn’t outright bearish—but it does show buyers losing the advantage for now. 

Meanwhile, the RSI continues to hover around the neutral zone, suggesting that the market is balanced and waiting for a catalyst.

Together, these indicators reinforce the idea that FIL is in a consolidation phase rather than a trending environment. Volatility is likely to expand once the price escapes this tightening structure.

Key Levels to Watch: FIL Faces Heavy Resistance but Strong Downside Cushions

Resistance Levels

Filecoin now faces layered resistance at $2.397, $2.407, and $2.561, all of which align with prior failures and areas of supply. 

Given the lack of strong bullish momentum, these levels may serve as rejection zones unless buying volume increases significantly.

Support Levels

On the downside, FIL has deeper structural support at $1.563, $1.465, and $1.367, which have been historically important in absorbing sell pressure. 

A move toward these regions would likely occur only if buyers fail to hold the psychological $2 area.

Order Book Analysis: Massive Walls Could Dictate the Timing of FIL’s Next Breakout

The crypto order book currently shows a dramatic imbalance that may fuel future volatility.

Major Bid Walls (Downside Protection but Risk If Broken)

• $1.470 BID WALL – 180,491 FIL (~$265k):
A break of this wall could accelerate a selloff, potentially triggering a drop of ~28% as liquidity thins below.
• $1.200 BID WALL – 112,932 FIL (~$135k):
Losing this support could extend the decline by ~41%, reflecting major structural weakness.
• $1.000 BID WALL – 106,599 FIL (~$106k):
If FIL loses this level, the market could suffer a drop exceeding 50%, marking a complete breakdown of long-term support.

These walls currently act as the backbone of the market structure. If they remain intact, the downside is cushioned. If they collapse, capitulation becomes likely.

Major Ask Walls (Upside Barriers but Huge Breakout Potential)

• $2.260 ASK WALL – 92,637 FIL (~$209k):
Clearing this wall would open a quick path toward the next resistance, offering ~10% upside potential.
• $2.850 ASK WALL – 107,858 FIL (~$307k):
Breaking through this barrier could fuel a rally of ~39%, implying a shift toward strong bullish control.
• $2.920 ASK WALL – 108,014 FIL (~$315k):
This is the major ceiling. A breakout above could send FIL ~42% higher toward the next resistance cluster.

The ask-side concentration suggests that if buyers return aggressively, FIL could experience a strong momentum burst once early walls are cleared.

Potential Long and Short Setups

Long Scenario

Traders looking for a bullish entry may wait for FIL to decisively reclaim and hold above the short-term moving averages. 

A clean breakout above the ask wall at $2.260 would be the first signal of renewed bullish momentum. Potential exit targets include the resistance zone around $2.40, and if momentum persists, the higher band near $2.56.

Short Scenario

Short-side opportunities emerge if the crypto loses the $2 region and begins sliding back toward deeper supports. 

A loss of the $1.470 bid wall would likely create significant momentum for sellers. Logical exit points would then be near $1.56, followed by $1.46 and $1.36 if bearish pressure intensifies.

Overall Outlook

FIL is in a transitional phase—neither strongly bullish nor strongly bearish. 

With indicators flattening and order book walls growing more influential, the market is positioning for a meaningful expansion in volatility. 

The next major move will likely be triggered when either the $2.26 ask wall breaks or the $1.47 bid wall collapses.