The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the market didn't surge; instead, it remained in a tug-of-war. This is partly because the previous rise had already priced in the positive news, and partly because subsequent market sentiment had tightened. It's been a while since my last update. I've been quite busy lately and haven't been trading much. Now I'm back in Dubai. Overall, the market trend is as predicted: after the September rate cut, major players used it for a major shakeout, resulting in two consecutive months of declines. Those who dared to call a bull market gradually disappeared, and only now is the market showing signs of improvement. This shakeout was very deep. BTC fell from 126,199 to 80,600, a drop of up to 36%; ETH fell from 4956 to 2623, a drop of up to 46%; other altcoins fared even worse. The market will gradually recover, but 2026 will likely be a slow bull market; you can hardly imagine a market without a major surge. Moreover, 80% of cryptocurrencies may follow the declines but not the rises—it's time to test your foresight. The reason is simple: the Federal Reserve's interest rates won't be drastically lowered in the short term, which means there won't be a massive flood of money into the market. Recent conversations with people in the industry have mostly been cautiously optimistic, but they're preparing for a downturn, prioritizing conservatism and survival. Therefore, what I said before still holds true: exercise, work hard, buy on dips, accumulate assets—treat it like a one-year fixed deposit. Having worked in this industry for eight years, I've seen people achieve financial freedom; they're all people who can endure loneliness, even to the point of self-"brainwashing"—brainwashing here is a positive term; people need belief, and belief truly needs to be cultivated within oneself first.

$MEW 😹 Is $11,000 enough to buy this #MEME? 🌚 Does anyone own it? 👀

"My portfolio is so quiet today... I think even the cryptocurrencies are asleep." 🤣 #emoji #BinanceBlockchainWeek #Cryptocurrency401k

Trader's Life #BinanceHODLerENSO #FedRateCutExpectations #MEME #cryptouniverseofficial #suichain$SUI$APT$SOL

The plunge continues! The only question now is: Will/when will Bitcoin fall below $100,000? As I said when the non-farm payroll data was released on September 5th: interest rate cuts and a surge are two different things! Even after the rate cut, if there's another wave of decline, until no one dares to call a bull market, that's when the real surge begins! (See Figure 2 below) Bitcoin is already approaching its previously mentioned first support level: $108,500, while ETH is headed for its second support level: $3,830 (See Figure 1 below). This month, everyone's been talking about a drop, but now it's really continuing to fall. I want to encourage all cryptocurrency traders: the bull market is still here! The basic logic remains: The Fed has started cutting interest rates again. No matter how much Powell talks, the Fed can't keep interest rates this high for so long (currently 4.00%-4.25%) unless they want to drag everyone down with them. Don't listen to the self-deprecating advice of those who give up. When the price drops to the right level, buy the dip. After that, eat and sleep, and wait for the wind to pick up! #Bitcoinpanic

Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Powell's stance remains hawkish, so the market's upward trend won't be smooth sailing! This could even be a reflection of the negative impact of the "buy expectations, sell the facts" statement from this afternoon. In the short term, BTC is likely to pull back, testing the support level of $113,500-115,000. If it breaks below, it could drop to $110,000. However, the implementation of the interest rate cut is ultimately a significant long-term positive, and the long-term outlook is optimistic.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference will take place at 2:00 AM this evening. This is the most crucial event determining the direction of global markets for the foreseeable future. Prior to the decision, the market is expected to remain in a narrow range, with fluctuations narrowing. A positive outcome, such as a 50 basis point rate cut (surpassing expectations) or a more dovish signal from Powell (suggesting further rate cuts), would be a significant boost to the market. BTC could break through with significant volume, directly targeting the previous high of $124,000, or even embark on a new journey towards $130,000. A negative outcome, such as a rate cut of only 25 basis points and Powell's cautious tone (emphasizing data-driven caution), would constitute a "buy the anticipation, sell the facts" scenario. BTC is likely to experience a sharp correction, testing the support level of $113,500-$115,000. A break below this level could lead to a potential drop to $110,000. Currently, the market's technical outlook is characterized by shrinking volume, volatility, and convergence, a typical "suffocating" state before a major event. On the daily chart, the trend remains bullish, but momentum is slowing. The MACD has narrowed after forming a golden cross, and rising volume is shrinking, indicating hesitant buying at the current level. The market is awaiting new catalysts to determine whether to continue its upward trend or experience a deep correction. The market has almost fully priced in a September interest rate cut, with three key areas of focus: Interest rate decision: 25 basis points or 50 basis points? Will it be in line with expectations or exceed them? Dot plot: What guidance does the path of interest rate cuts offer this year and beyond? Powell's speech: Is the tone "dovish" (implying further rate cuts) or "hawkish" (emphasizing data-driven caution)? ETH is following Bitcoin but showing weakness. Upward resistance levels are $4,650 and $4,720, while downward support levels are $4,400 and $4,280. With 7 hours left, please fasten your seatbelts, protect your principal, and wait for the storm to pass before setting sail. #Federal Reserve Meeting

While the market has been volatile recently, there's an interesting phenomenon: The market has generally been rising during the day and falling at night! This means that the Asian market, which is primarily dominated by domestic investors, is buying, while the European and American markets are selling! Previous news: ETH is likely to fall below $4,000 in its peak trading volume. In the short term (due to the influx of funds from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts), all price increases are intended to pave the way for a further decline! Now is not the time for a pattern!

The Federal Reserve must cut interest rates based on the non-farm payroll data, but a rate cut and an immediate surge are two different things! As I've said before: If the rate cut isn't implemented and the resulting funds take time to flow into the market, the time gap left by these two issues will definitely be used by major players to clean up the market! Because the load is too heavy. Even after the rate cut is implemented, if there's a further decline until no one dares to call it a bull market, that's when the real surge begins!

The market may be turning around at 8:30 AM. After so many days of volatility, the time has come. Of course, I remain bearish on the overall market and expect a correction. In fact, before Powell's words, I already predicted that Bitcoin and ETH would likely reach $100,000 and $4,000, respectively. It's only Powell's words that delayed this trend, as shown in the chart below: BTC faces short-term resistance at $112,900, with support at $107,000 and $105,500; ETH faces short-term resistance at $4,480 and $4,520, with support at $4,200 and $4,100. If it falls below $100,000, BTC will first have to see if it can hold above $98,000, and ETH will have to see if it can hold above $3,880! As long as they hold, the bull market remains, and both present opportunities to get on board! Some may ask: Isn't this market manipulation giving retail investors money by driving the price down like this? You're mistaken. Market manipulation is least afraid of you buying at the bottom, nor are they afraid of you making a temporary profit. I was chatting with an industry expert today about this issue, and one of his points perfectly addresses it: What market makers fear most isn't that retail investors make money, but that you won't enter the market! Once you enter, you've been trapped in a sheep pen, and the market makers have a thousand ways to harvest you! So, market makers manipulate the market downturn to encourage you to buy at the bottom, allowing you to temporarily profit. But then, your greed won't allow you to lock in your gains, but instead you'll increase your investment. That's when the market makers reap the rewards! Who among the experienced investors who have experienced a bull and bear market hasn't made money? I once made a profit on A7 in a single month, then lost it all on a 5.19 rally, mismanaged trading, and lost everything! So, in this industry, learning to stop when you're ahead and lock in your profits is always crucial. It's also the final step for investors to become skilled traders.