Whether we're focusing on macro news or charts, we're essentially trying to capture market sentiment and the underlying capital flows. After all, capital flow is the true key to market fluctuations. Capital tends to flow in the direction most likely to produce results, which is why narratives are so crucial. Generally speaking, the market transition from lukewarm to buoyant occurs in several stages.
Phase 1 (Chaos): Funds, without a clear focus, cast a wide net, even meme-based, narrative-less altcoins (like DOGE and PEPE) can benefit from a rebound.
The reason for this is the "buy now, see later" mentality. Regardless of the sector, bet on a rebound in sentiment.
Phase 2 (Narrative Convergence): Funds begin to converge toward sectors with clear narratives, such as the current wave of ETFs (BTC and ETH spot ETFs).
Altcoins with significant ecosystem value (UNI and Penguin), attached to mainchains like ETH and SOL, have natural liquidity and a user base, resulting in high activity, high volatility, and rapid rebounds. Meanwhile, the premium for "affiliated altcoins" is driven by both the chain's inherent growth and the return of ecosystem capital, a dual driver.
Phase 3 (Train Fermentation Period)
Once ETH is confirmed as the leading cryptocurrency, various branches of the ETH ecosystem (DEFI, L2, meme) will undergo rotation.
UNI (the leading DEX), ARB/OP (L2), and ETH-related memes (such as the old SHIB and new, highly active memes) will all benefit.
The SOL ecosystem will be marginalized, and unless it develops its own independent narrative breakthrough, it could indeed enter a period of decline (this has happened historically, for example, the BNB ecosystem's presence significantly declined during the ETH bull market).