My personal analysis of Bitcoin price movements based on the Fibonacci sequence, Elliott Wave Theory, and global M2 supply: 1/ "Cooling Down" Phase (Now – April 2026) The market has weakened after last year's significant surge. Prices are consolidating, trying to decide whether to continue rising or falling. Key Price Level: Watch $74,000. If the price continues to fall below this level, the "cooling down" phase will continue. Target: Find a bottom where buyers can safely enter. 2/ "Bottoming Down" Phase (May – July 2026) Historically, this is a period of the largest "sell-off." A final wave of price declines is expected to clear out the remaining sellers. Price Target: Prices could fall to $61,000, or even as low as $53,000. Market Sentiment: This often feels like a "mini-winter," with headlines turning negative before the next major fluctuation. 3/ The "Recovery" Phase (August to December 2026) If the summer bottom holds, the market will typically begin a slow and steady recovery. Price Target: The target is to return to the $100,000 mark. If momentum is strong, prices could break through $130,000 by the end of this year or early 2027. (Non-financial advice)