I want to point out a few obvious key points. (1) Destroying all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is madness and could lead to an unprecedented global economic collapse and humanitarian crisis. We're talking about everything from food to gasoline; prices will rise, and inflation is already high. All of this will be blamed on the instigators of this war. (2) The pre-war situation before February 27, 2026, was actually quite good, but we are unlikely to return to that state. Everything in the Middle East is expected to suffer indefinite, long-term, and continuous destruction. (3) Furthermore, we must assume that technology financing will collapse for a very long time to come. The "genius" plans that plunged the Gulf states into war have already destroyed most of the funding for limited partners, data centers, and initial public offerings (IPOs). Any tech professionals who supported this war will likely soon experience the meaning of "force majeure" as their funds are withdrawn. (4) Many capital allocators will instead invest in lower levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, such as basic necessities like food and energy. (5) Fortunately, those progressives once proclaimed a “climate crisis.” Yes, their timelines were flawed, and much money was wasted on corruption, but the outcome was correct: we all need to wean ourselves off Middle Eastern energy as quickly as possible. Equally fortunate is that Elon Musk and China have taken climate change very seriously. Now, they need to immediately ship billions of solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and so on, to wean everyone off oil. (6) Of course, this isn't just about oil and gas. It's also about fertilizers and chemical precursors. Perhaps some new resources will become available at new prices, but scaling up takes time, especially at this scale, so shortages are almost inevitable. Nevertheless, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals (C2C) [a,c] and there's an even more futuristic technology called “Power-to-X” [b], which can convert any energy, water, and air into hydrocarbons. But all of this needs to be accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering, so I might start funding projects in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war will result in a heavy burden of guilt on everyone involved. Destroying such a massive infrastructure for the benefit of so many people is destined to be a lose-lose situation. Whatever their initial goals may have been, it will be a losing proposition. But unless you are truly capable of stopping this madness, the pragmatic approach is to do everything in your power to mitigate the damage this war will cause to yourself and your business.
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