Dan Bin stated that the ironclad rule of the US stock market has never changed.
Almost every year sees a pullback exceeding 10%, which is the norm in market operation, not the end of risk.
Looking back over the past three years:
In August 2024, the yen's interest rate hike triggered capital inflows, causing a correction in US stocks;
In March and April 2025, escalating trade frictions and panic led to a decline in the index;
In February and March 2026, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East caused further market turmoil.
While the causes of these three pullbacks differed, they all confirmed one fact: any major bull market is inseparable from the baptism of volatility.
Looking at a longer time horizon, the S&P 500 index has frequently experienced annual pullbacks exceeding 10% over the decades, yet its long-term annualized returns remain robust.
These fluctuations mostly stem from short-term noise such as geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, and trade disputes. While seemingly impactful, they have never shaken the core trend of industrial upgrading. Just like the early days of the internet, frequent setbacks such as bursting bubbles and tightening regulations ultimately could not stop the technological revolution from reshaping the world. The current era of artificial intelligence is mirroring this historical trajectory. As a new revolution in productivity, the process of AI technology implementation, industrial penetration, and profit realization is destined to be accompanied by valuation discrepancies and emotional fluctuations.
Most investors fail because they are swayed by short-term noise, panicking and selling during pullbacks, then chasing highs after rebounds, ultimately missing out on the opportunities of this era.
True long-term investing lies in seeing through volatility to the essence. There's no need to be anxious about the regular annual drawdowns; instead, they should be seen as opportunities to invest in high-quality assets.
Ignoring short-term disturbances and adhering to the core themes of the AI revolution—this composure against noise is key to navigating cycles and seizing the opportunities of this era.
Great eras are never smooth sailing; only those who firmly believe in the long term and uphold value can become the ultimate winners.