This morning's surge has once again wiped out both bulls and bears. I just glanced at the candlestick chart; ETH touched 2150 last night, but as expected, it failed to hold and immediately started its downward spiral. Many brothers messaged me late at night: "Bro, is this the bottom? Can we still get on board?" Don't worry, I'll use the Elliott Wave Theory to illustrate the scenario for you. After reading it, you'll know what to do next. First, the conclusion: the 2153 level is unlikely to hold. Many people thought the low of 2153 at 1:30 AM yesterday was a temporary bottom and rushed to buy. But I have to pour cold water on that: from the Elliott Wave Theory's structural perspective, this point will likely be broken. Why? Because the upward trend on the 30-minute chart has already completed its structure. Those who understand Elliott Wave Theory know that comparing the entry and exit segments, the MACD clearly shows a bearish divergence—that feeling of "running out of steam." It's like running a 100-meter dash; you sprint the first 50 meters, but your legs weaken in the last 50. At this point, trying to force a new high is likely nonsense. So the script is clear: if there's another rebound on the 30-minute chart, but it fails to break the previous high (regardless of whether it breaks or not, the strength matters), and the structure is complete + top divergence + a second sell signal appears, then this downward trend on the 30-minute chart is basically confirmed. At that point, the 2153 level will be nothing but a paper tiger. My own approach is as follows: I'm not the kind of blogger who likes to predict price points blindly. In Elliott Wave Theory, the strategy is "act when the structure is there." But today I can clearly outline the boundary conditions: First, before breaking 2053, if there's a 30-minute upward rebound, I'll try placing a short order. Don't ask why; structure + divergence + second sell signal—if these three elements are met, then act. If it falsely breaks 2053, reduce the position first, then set a break-even stop loss—first, ensure you're in an unassailable position. Second, if it breaks 2053 directly and a 30-minute bottom divergence appears, then prepare to go long. Wait for a second buy signal to appear, then get on board. Some long-time followers may know that I usually post my real-time trades on the Yige community. After all, with Elliott Wave Theory, price levels follow the structure; predicting in advance is useless. When the structure arrives, the price level will naturally appear. A few more words from the heart: ETH is actually in a rather awkward position lately. On the macro level, the Middle East is still in conflict, oil prices are soaring, and US stocks are weak, with large funds seeking safe havens. On-chain data isn't good either; DEX trading volume has dropped sharply, and DApp revenue is almost half of last month's. But does that mean ETH is completely finished? Not necessarily. ETFs have actually seen inflows in the past two days, with a whopping $169 million flowing in yesterday, a two-month high. What does this mean? It means that large institutions are buying on the dip, while retail investors are panic selling. Therefore, my advice is: for short-term trading, follow the Elliott Wave Theory structure—short when it's appropriate, go long when it's appropriate, don't go against the structure. But for long-term positions, as long as the base position area of 1800 isn't broken, don't exit easily. In the crypto world, those who survive the longest aren't necessarily the most aggressive, but rather those with the most consistent and stable trading style. Where do you think ETH will drop to this point? Let's discuss in the comments; let's see if anyone's prediction matches my scenario. #MiddleEastTemporaryEscalation #Trump's15%GlobalTariffsToTakeEffectThisWeek $BTC