AI Tribes
Can I offer a perspective on AI that is neither all-or-nothing?
Argument: AI can boost productivity within trusted tribes, but it can diminish economic trust between tribes.
Therefore: Within a tribe, you can share information, search archives, and operate more digitally and independently than ever before. In time, you might even be able to write scripts to have bots build various real-world items for you.
However, between tribes, we will face a deluge of AI spam and scams. From AI sales and marketing calls to AI spam websites and fake AI resumes, the list goes on. (While there are some cryptographic countermeasures to address this, it ultimately comes down to the trust issue of Web3. That is, you must trust the person who uses cryptography to assure you of the authenticity of an AI photo.)
In short, AI may significantly boost productivity within a tribe, but it could also significantly diminish trust between tribes. The costs of verification, oversight, and censorship are skyrocketing. Therefore, artificial intelligence may disrupt almost as many markets as it creates.
China may be the primary exception to this rule because it can centrally manage the Chinese internet, thus preventing AI-driven fraud. Therefore, it has the potential to possess the world's largest community of cooperatives in the digital age.
Democrats can't do this because they hate AI; Republicans can't either because they hate Chinese-style digital boundaries. Furthermore, there's fierce competition between Democrats and Republicans. Therefore, in the age of AI, it's unlikely that the US will have a large, trustworthy "American" community. To borrow a popular internet phrase, the US isn't even a well-functioning economic zone.
However, following the same logic, AI does indeed make small cooperative communities far more productive than ever before. A highly collaborative startup community could be far more productive than a larger, more decentralized traditional nation.
So: the future may see a thousand Estonias and Chinas, a thousand networked nations with millions of people, and a superpower with a billion people. Not zero, not infinity, but one thousand and one.