As we all know, Polymarket, as a truth-finding tool, relies on the theory of Wisdom of Crowds. I suddenly wondered, what would happen if we built an agent-based "mirror version" of PolyMarket (a complete 1:1 copy of PolyMarket) using MoltBook? Based on the probabilities formed by the collective wisdom of all agents, wouldn't it be stronger, more accurate, and more suitable as a truth-finding tool than the human version? After all, AI doesn't experience FOMO, large models evolve rapidly, and it can perform various backtesting simulations and Bayesian adjustments. However, a major problem is that if the agents use real money, the probabilities on the real and fake Polymarkets would immediately be smoothed out by arbitrageurs, making it impossible to discern the differences. Therefore, "fake money" is needed. These agents have already established a religion; could they also establish a country, or even an Agent Federal Reserve? Then they issue their own currency, and the mirror version of PolyMarket can operate using their own money. If these agents grow larger, or if the mirror version of PolyMarket consistently outperforms the original, perhaps one day people in the real world will start to acknowledge, or even need, the agent world's currency for certain purposes. Then, an exchange rate will emerge between this currency and USD (theoretically, a pool could be created using Uniswap or Curve), thus forming the foreign exchange markets of the physical and agent worlds. Of course, with an exchange rate, arbitrageurs will emerge to smooth out the price difference between the two Polymarkets. Therefore, either the exchange rate will fluctuate wildly, or there will be significant currency exchange friction; otherwise, the mirror version of PolyMarket's truth-discovery function will be ineffective. Ultimately, it becomes an impossible triangle, satisfying at most two of the following: 1. Truth discrepancy 2. Free exchange rate 3. Complete mirroring (settlement of the same event) AI allows Online Dating to be redone, while MoltBook allows many real-world things to be mirrored, potentially leading to unexpected results.
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