Whether something is right or wrong isn't determined by the outcome, but by what you know at the moment you place the bet. If you're overly concerned about the outcome at the moment you bet, it's likely not a correct trade. At the moment you bet, you clearly know which trades have positive EV. When buying CRCL, I didn't care so much about short-term fluctuations because I knew it had sufficiently positive EV and extremely high EV.