I've been checking Polymarket for the past couple of days, watching Rick Rieder's odds climb steadily. It's impossible not to feel nervous. After all, this isn't a minor position; it's someone who directly shapes the macroeconomic narrative for the next few years. Trump's comment about him being "extremely well-known" didn't seem like something akin to Walsh to me. Adding the phrase "Rieder is impressive" basically gave the market the answer. Now we're seeing if it's priced in early, or if there will be a reversal later.