Let's talk about the overall market: Since gradually shifting from "predictive trading" to "intraday trigger trading," I've rarely done subjective predictive analysis anymore.
The market gives signals, I follow; if not, I wait.
However, the market has been quite volatile these past few days—constant fluctuations, low volatility, and funds are scattered across MME, gold and silver, and US stocks, resulting in a significant cooling of overall sentiment in the crypto market.
With some free time, I'll briefly share my views on the overall market.
First, the conclusion: Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend on the weekly chart remains intact, and I remain optimistic about its future direction.
However, the previous strong bull run has indeed been put on hold, and this needs to be clarified first.
Structurally: The daily chart is in a correction phase, and recently it seems to be consolidating within a range.
It's still unclear whether this range is a continuation of a new downward trend,
or a bottoming-out accumulation zone preparing for a second bull run.
How will the short-term trend determine the medium-term direction? I will be closely watching the weekly closing prices over the next two weeks:
If the weekly closes below 88K and the rebound is weak,
it's more likely the start of a new downtrend, with attention focused on the 85K-78K range.
If the weekly closes above 95K and holds above it on pullbacks,
that basically confirms a strong rebound structure, and the target will revert to the 100K-100.5K range. Frankly, at this stage, we can only follow the trend, not predict it.
Based on past market experience:
If this market experiences a rapid sell-off, breaking below 75K and then quickly recovering,
that would be a very attractive medium-term buying opportunity, a signal I've been closely monitoring.
Whether it materializes or not is up to fate.
Because every bottom has both cyclical and random elements—sometimes, a single event is enough to ignite a medium-term rally.
Let's discuss the recent drop: The decline from the high to 89-88K was very rapid, with heavy selling pressure, but the price never broke through effectively—every time it touched around 88K, the selling pressure was quickly absorbed, which isn't the behavior of retail investors.
The conclusion is simple: there is capital slowly accumulating positions.
Short-term strategy: Continue to operate within the range—buy near the lower edge of the range on a drop, and try shorting near key liquidation levels on a rebound.
Medium- to long-term: Patiently wait for directional confirmation, and only act when the price reaches a comfortable and sufficiently certain buying zone.
Just a few words. Feel free to leave a comment and discuss if you have different opinions.
#BTC
