Today (January 19, 2026), the market experienced significant volatility, primarily due to the combined impact of the geopolitical crisis that erupted over the weekend and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy. Although it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day and US stock markets were closed, global stock index futures and precious metals markets still reacted sharply to the news. The following are the core reasons for the surge in gold and the plunge in Nasdaq futures: 1. Gold Surge: Safe-Haven Sentiment and Global Credit Risk * Greenland Tariff Impact: Over the weekend, Trump suddenly issued an ultimatum to eight European allies, threatening a 25% tariff if they did not support his acquisition of Greenland. This move triggered extreme market concerns about the disintegration of NATO and the collapse of the global trade order. * Federal Reserve Independence Crisis: The Trump administration's recent investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has severely shaken market confidence in the dollar's credibility and the independence of monetary policy. As the "ultimate safe-haven asset," gold broke through historical highs again amid the turmoil, currently trading around $4,625-$4,650 per ounce. * **Continued Geopolitical Tensions:** Internal turmoil in Iran and rumors of potential US involvement further fueled safe-haven demand. 2. **Nasdaq Futures Plunge: Risk Assets Sell-Off** * **Risk-off Sell-off:** Faced with the aforementioned threat of European tariffs, investors withdrew from risk assets such as tech stocks and moved into precious metals. The market fears a new round of trade wars will severely damage the global supply chains and profits of multinational tech giants. * **Federal Reserve Uncertainty:** The market is concerned that administrative intervention in the Federal Reserve will make the future interest rate path unpredictable, which is a significant negative for Nasdaq tech stocks whose valuations are heavily reliant on the interest rate environment. * **Holiday Liquidity Dilution:** With US stock markets closed, market liquidity is low, and even small sell orders can trigger significant price drops, amplifying the volatility of individual stocks and index futures. **Market Observation:** The current market logic has shifted from traditional "inflation/interest rate" trading to **"sovereign credit and geopolitical order"** trading.