After reviewing the *Binance Research 2025 Review*, I'm even more convinced of one thing: the biggest risk of misjudging in 2026 isn't being bullish or bearish, but rather trying to understand it using a "typical bull/bear" template. Let's look at some key data: In 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed $4 trillion, BTC's market share remained consistently high at 58-60%, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $21.3 billion, and corporate holdings exceeded 1.1 million BTC—all signals of structural strengthening. However, on the other hand, BTC on-chain active addresses decreased by 16% year-over-year, and transaction volume and fees did not expand in line with price growth; most altcoins continued to underperform, and funds did not overflow. What does this indicate? —BTC is shifting from a "transaction network" to a "macro financial asset"; ETFs, treasury companies, and potential future sovereign strategic reserves are replacing retail investors and on-chain speculation as the primary pricing forces. This also explains why the much-anticipated "certain quarter" hasn't arrived yet. This is because the current environment is not one of "indiscriminate diffusion of liquidity," but rather an atypical cycle characterized by highly concentrated funds and stratified risk appetite. Structurally, BTC, stablecoins, RWA, and a few protocols capable of generating real cash flow are absorbing incremental funds, while a large number of assets that "only have narratives but no revenue" are being marginalized. This is why I believe 2026 is more likely to see a bull-bear market transition and an "atypical bear market structure." The "three engines of policy" (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) repeatedly emphasized in the Binance report do indeed provide upside potential for risky assets, but this liquidity is not a "broad-based" phenomenon; rather, it's more like an environment that rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity. This differentiation is already underway: stablecoin market capitalization has risen to $305 billion, with a daily settlement volume of $3.5T, almost double that of Visa; RWA TVL reached $17 billion, surpassing DEXs for the first time; and leading DeFi protocols generated $16.2 billion in annual revenue, exceeding the combined annual revenue of Nasdaq and CME Group. All of this indicates that funds are moving towards assets that are "valuable, compliant, and sustainable." Therefore, 2026 may not be a full-blown bull market, nor is it necessarily a traditional bear market; rather, it resembles a phase of consolidation and restructuring among established players. What truly matters is identifying which assets are experiencing structural increases in allocation and which are merely being propped up by weak prices. This is not a cycle of sentiment, but a cycle of capital flows!