我想指出的是,市面上大多数比特币模型都是贝叶斯概率模型。这些模型只是在价格上涨时增加价格继续上涨的概率,在价格下跌时增加价格继续下跌的概率。从这个意义上讲,它们几乎没有任何价值。它们总是预测错顶部和底部,却因为能够正确预测价格上涨时会继续上涨或下跌而显得“成功”。
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