Circle's 30% drop isn't the main issue. The real issue is that 70% of its profits are being taken by distribution channels, its customers are becoming competitors, and while it can scale up, it can't maintain its profits.
CEXs take 60-70% of the benchmark interest rate, Coinbase takes another 50%, leaving shareholders with only 10-20%. Worse still, platforms like Hyperliquid have found issuing stablecoins too profitable and are issuing their own USDH. Circle's customers are becoming its competitors.
Newly listed companies have no price anchor; the market needs one or two years to find a reasonable range. If you're truly bullish, the only reasonable approach is dollar-cost averaging. But most people can't stick to it—they doubt it if it doesn't rise for three months, sell at a 30% drop, and then regret it when it rises fivefold.
Circle needs a second revenue stream. If it continues to rely on USDC for interest, it will never escape the fate of being taken by distribution channels. Only by increasing the proportion of non-interest income can it truly take control.
So, don't ask if it will continue to fall. Ask yourself: Do you understand its predicament and opportunities? Are you willing to invest time in its growth? If you're just gambling, don't buy. You will most likely lose money.