I've read every Howard Marks memo from the past 35 years, and my key takeaway is this: "You can't predict, but you can prepare." Specifically, this means: - Economic, market, and business cycles will always exist due to the presence of animal spirits. - You can roughly assess where we are in the cycle based on current price multiples relative to historical averages and investor sentiment (e.g., "This time is different"). - There's no need to predict when and where the cycle will peak or bottom. - No one can consistently outperform the market consensus over the long term. - But you can outperform the market over the long term by adjusting defensive or aggressive positioning based on where we are in the cycle. This is simple, but incredibly difficult to implement because you'll be succumbing to your own animal spirits.