There will be a rate cut tomorrow at 2:00 AM, and Powell will speak at 2:30 AM.
A rate cut is definitely a good thing. While the money still takes time to transmit, financial markets are very sensitive.
Rate cuts are either precautionary or emergency response to a crisis. Although employment has declined, the overall situation is relatively good. I personally believe this is a precautionary cut. An emergency rate cut like the one in March 2020, where a 150 basis point cut over two weeks still resulted in a continuous market sell-off.
Back to the market, this 25 basis point cut is a positive development and in line with market expectations. There may be a short-term correction due to the positive news, or there may be a surge followed by a correction after the announcement, but in the long run, it is a positive development. No rate cut or a 50 basis point cut would be bearish, and a larger cut would lead to market expectations of a recession.
The ideal scenario is two or three 25 basis point cuts this year. If we see an acceleration in rate cuts, we should be cautious.
There will be relatively large fluctuations in the market starting from tomorrow morning, especially Powell's speech. Every word may cause fluctuations. There is a high probability that the price has not changed but the order has been lost. It is best not to do short-term trading tonight and just gamble on the size.