My sleep schedule and mental state have been extremely poor over the past week. I finally slept in today and am writing down my thoughts on the future. Actually, I should have posted this yesterday; it feels a bit like hindsight now, but whatever, even if it continues to fall, I'll likely manage my positions based on this strategy. The capitulation sentiment on CT has reached unprecedented levels. I've heard many experienced traders say they don't want to play anymore—some are withdrawing their funds, others are investing. Basically, everyone is pessimistic about the crypto market; those who are bullish are definitely in the minority. After a little observation, the arguments can be roughly divided into two camps: bullish = interest rate cuts + a massive bull market in US stocks bearish = The market is in a terrible state; the 10/11 attacks have devastated everyone. Personally, I'm bullish. I anticipate an environment with more money in the market, a drop in gold prices, and a strong US stock market. BTC is the only hope for the crypto world, so its chances of rising are very high. I believe BTC is gradually decoupling from the internal sentiment within the crypto market. Its direction is determined by the Wall Street bigwigs. Once macro liquidity picks up, I can't think of any reason why BTC won't rise. It will rise, but it will take time. Money flowing from the most powerful and successful US stocks to the speculative crypto market takes time; we can only wait patiently. As for the 99.99% of altcoins, don't even think about it. That's related to market sentiment and the amount of capital. Many market makers are currently... Many have chosen to rest, and large investors are all managing their finances. Those with money aren't playing, and those without money have even less after October 11th. Therefore, any rebound in altcoins will most likely be a short-selling opportunity, or at least people won't touch them now. Be extremely careful with your investment choices; holding on to them will only lead to losses. Quickly abandon those pathetic altcoins you're holding, my friends! Currently, the only ones I'm optimistic about are Hype, Tao, and Zec. Virtual, there are definitely some with huge market capitalizations, but I can't find any, lol. If you have any recommendations, please leave a comment, thank you. Under this line of thinking, if you're operating on the left side, when LIQ is terrible/MP is extremely high, you should short altcoins. Low leverage and shorting are hard to lose. Shorting large MC stocks is very profitable. Use the profits from short positions to buy BTC spot. When bottom fishing, mainly buy BTC. Whether you buy altcoins or not doesn't matter, since you can't enter a position anyway. So why not go all in on BTC with a large position? At least it's relatively safer. And with money flowing in from outside the gambling world on the left side, there's probably no better choice than BTC. In the middle... Try to minimize the number of trades, and it's best to trade when prices/indicators/sentiments are low. Oh, and altcoins aren't entirely unplayable. As I said before, because there's no real narrative in the market, when a seemingly plausible narrative appears, funds will pour in. The goal is to drive up prices; whether the narrative actually holds true is another matter. So, you can be careless, just jump in, grab a quick profit, and leave the building blocks to the big players. Treat yourself as a market parasite, and don't have any faith in anything other than Bitcoin. That's about it. I can't think of anything else to write. The crypto world is truly pathetic, lol.

I've never done anything, but it's nice to have this. Thanks @monad $MON MONAD BOXES 🎁

Figure 1 $PING's momentum began around October 23rd. Until October 24th, PING fluctuated within a wide range of 2m to 4m, but sentiment on Twitter was clearly building. Figure 2: $PING broke through and continued to rise around 8:00 AM on the 24th, fueling widespread sentiment. Figure 3: $Virtual only started to take off at 4:00 PM on the 24th, subsequently surging 80%. I originally wrote this tweet to say that when investing in the secondary market, one should pay attention to market sentiment and what everyone is paying attention to, then identify the corresponding tokens, use the trading system to position themselves, and roll their positions with stop-loss orders. However, after sorting through the data, I discovered that related concept tokens listed on the stock exchange, such as $Virtual and $aixbt, had only risen 80%. Meanwhile, $PING had already risen 560% before their surge and another 160% after their launch. If you're chasing *listed coins* based on market attention, it's better to invest directly in the leading on-chain tokens. Listed coins are only suitable for exploiting information gaps and gaining cost advantages. You've missed out on so much by not investing in on-chain tokens.

Of the three BNB chain memes of this wave, $Binance Life was bought during the first major pullback to 60M. $4 was bought from 220M to 70M, with a continuous loss, pulling down the average price and then taking advantage of the rebound. $Giggle was bought at the frantic market price after the news of its spot listing came out today. None of these three coins were bought at a low price, but using three different trading methods, all have yielded good results. I think this is where my personal trading progress has been the biggest in the past six months. In the past, when I missed out on these big wins, especially when I saw others making huge profits with high multiples, I was more frustrated and regretful, and I would analyze the reasons for my missed opportunity. Now, I use a more calm and composed approach to analyze the potential opportunities of the asset, not focusing on other investors' costs and profits, but solely on whether there is room for further growth after I buy.

First, don't think trading is difficult. Have confidence. It's very simple, nothing complicated, and you shouldn't underestimate it. Second, be cautious before placing each order. Carefully assess whether the market conditions match your setup before placing an order. While holding a position, pay close attention to price fluctuations at every key level and take them seriously.

Honestly, when I first used @Polymarket in 2024, I thought it was just a betting platform (I even requested more sports be added at the time) 🤣 But as I started researching and using it day by day, following Polymarket's updates, everything started to change. From my perspective, I began to see some familiar yet slightly niche predictions emerge (like predicting the release date of GTA 6 🤣). I began to realize that Polymarket was different from other betting platforms. People seemed to be turning their opinions and attention into money bets based on probability. Perhaps we'll see more of this in the future—"Instead of endlessly arguing, why not use Polymarket's predictions and let the facts determine the true winners and losers?" There's a Chinese saying: "There's no first in literature, no second in martial arts." Meaning, in literature or art, there's no true "first"—everyone has their own style and audience. But in a sport like boxing, second place is always the biggest loser, because you've already been beaten. In my opinion, Polymarket quantifies "literature" and "martial arts" into data, achieving a fusion. In certain areas, it translates the most dominant view into fact. Over time, these voices will either grow louder or be displaced, but at the same time… in the realm of martial arts, one voice will always prevail; this is its inherent law. You never know which voice will ultimately prevail until time runs out. Enjoy the exchange of ideas—that's the true charm of Polymarket and prediction markets. Enjoy @Polymarket

There's also this $4... It's clearly being continuously suppressed by the moving average, creating "lower highs" and establishing a downward trend. However, at the two red boxes, one low breaks through the stop-loss orders of most retail investors, and then another red box forms a "higher high," negating the downward trend indicated by the eight red arrows, creating a tangled pattern. At this point, it's time to observe whether the previous moving average is valid again. A valid indicator is whether the price rebounds strongly after a pullback or nears the moving average. If there is a strong rebound, enter the market on the second pullback. If there is no strong rebound and the price repeatedly crosses the moving average, it should be blacklisted for short-term trading. *Don't treat your attention as a silent cost*

There's a method for investing in altcoins. On a small (5m) timeframe, BTC shows weakness, perhaps only dropping 1%-3%. However, when altcoins follow suit, it's time to scan the market individually to identify those that aren't falling. For example, $SOON in Figure 1 shows SOON above and BTC below. Within the same timeframe, consider going long if three characteristics are met: 1. Bitcoin falls, and altcoins generally fall, but SOON doesn't follow. 2. Bitcoin surges, but SOON doesn't. 3. It rises from a small bottom, maintaining its own rhythm. Enter at the green arrow for a breakout. Of course, it's also okay to enter a position earlier, even if it experiences some declines. Place your stop-loss at the previous low. The advantage of this approach is that if you buy at a BTC trend reversal, you're likely to capture over 50% of the altcoin's gains. This strategy worked very well in 2013. The same principle applies to $H in Figure 2.

My biggest takeaway from my mentors and trading experience: Many people are stubbornly long even though the market is clearly down. Those who laugh at others for wanting to short in an uptrend, end up doing the same thing in a downtrend themselves. Of course, don't be stubborn: When the market microstructure begins to change, after the rebound, a higher low + higher high appears, it's time to admit your mistake. The same applies in reverse. Trade with no bias.

It's late at night, so I'm sharing a little about @Polymarket. My friends and I have developed a prediction experience (of course, the inherent risk is still somewhat high, requiring some experience, and this method is only for football enthusiasts). We all know that football leagues are divided into three options: win, draw, and loss. If we know one team's chances of winning aren't very high (the key point), we can predict the other team's win or draw, hedging our risk. As you can see in the image of the Cologne match, I predicted both a win and a draw, but regardless of the final result, I still made a profit. This is a relatively safe approach. While there are certainly upsets, in most cases, if you keep your costs within a reasonable range, the probability of a return is high. This really depends on my experience and skills. I'm also learning about crypto and other trading. Feel free to share your thoughts with me! 😄 Late at night, I'll share some prediction insights my friends and I have developed for @Polymarket (though it's inherently risky, requires experience, and is only suitable for soccer enthusiasts). We all know football leagues offer three betting options: win, draw, or loss. When we recognize one team's win probability isn't particularly high (the key challenge), we predict the other team's win or draw to hedge the risk. As shown in my chart for the Koln match, I predicted both victory and a draw. Regardless of the final outcome, I'd still profit. This is a relatively safe approach. Of course, upsets will happen, but most of the time, if you manage your costs well, the probability of making a profit is quite high. This comes down to personal experience and skill. I'm also learning about trade in crypto and other areas. If you have more ideas, feel free to chat with me! 😄