My sleep schedule and mental state have been extremely poor over the past week. I finally slept in today and am writing down my thoughts on the future. Actually, I should have posted this yesterday; it feels a bit like hindsight now, but whatever, even if it continues to fall, I'll likely manage my positions based on this strategy.
The capitulation sentiment on CT has reached unprecedented levels. I've heard many experienced traders say they don't want to play anymore—some are withdrawing their funds, others are investing. Basically, everyone is pessimistic about the crypto market; those who are bullish are definitely in the minority.
After a little observation, the arguments can be roughly divided into two camps:
bullish = interest rate cuts + a massive bull market in US stocks
bearish = The market is in a terrible state; the 10/11 attacks have devastated everyone.
Personally, I'm bullish. I anticipate an environment with more money in the market, a drop in gold prices, and a strong US stock market. BTC is the only hope for the crypto world, so its chances of rising are very high. I believe BTC is gradually decoupling from the internal sentiment within the crypto market. Its direction is determined by the Wall Street bigwigs. Once macro liquidity picks up, I can't think of any reason why BTC won't rise. It will rise, but it will take time. Money flowing from the most powerful and successful US stocks to the speculative crypto market takes time; we can only wait patiently.
As for the 99.99% of altcoins, don't even think about it. That's related to market sentiment and the amount of capital. Many market makers are currently... Many have chosen to rest, and large investors are all managing their finances. Those with money aren't playing, and those without money have even less after October 11th. Therefore, any rebound in altcoins will most likely be a short-selling opportunity, or at least people won't touch them now. Be extremely careful with your investment choices; holding on to them will only lead to losses. Quickly abandon those pathetic altcoins you're holding, my friends!
Currently, the only ones I'm optimistic about are Hype, Tao, and Zec. Virtual, there are definitely some with huge market capitalizations, but I can't find any, lol. If you have any recommendations, please leave a comment, thank you.
Under this line of thinking, if you're operating on the left side, when LIQ is terrible/MP is extremely high, you should short altcoins. Low leverage and shorting are hard to lose. Shorting large MC stocks is very profitable. Use the profits from short positions to buy BTC spot. When bottom fishing, mainly buy BTC. Whether you buy altcoins or not doesn't matter, since you can't enter a position anyway. So why not go all in on BTC with a large position? At least it's relatively safer. And with money flowing in from outside the gambling world on the left side, there's probably no better choice than BTC. In the middle... Try to minimize the number of trades, and it's best to trade when prices/indicators/sentiments are low.
Oh, and altcoins aren't entirely unplayable. As I said before, because there's no real narrative in the market, when a seemingly plausible narrative appears, funds will pour in. The goal is to drive up prices; whether the narrative actually holds true is another matter. So, you can be careless, just jump in, grab a quick profit, and leave the building blocks to the big players. Treat yourself as a market parasite, and don't have any faith in anything other than Bitcoin.
That's about it. I can't think of anything else to write. The crypto world is truly pathetic, lol.



