9.18美联储降息概率超85%,幅度以25bp为主(7%几率50bp),本次属防御性降息,经济虽有93%衰退风险,但就业强劲,属预防放缓而非硬着陆。从历史数据看,此类降息后S&P短期波动(-3~+5%),中期12月平均涨幅+14%;币市短期回调3-8%后反弹,大饼一年内涨20%以上。也就是小黑这些天奶出的20万刀目标。
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