"Reflections on Delisting"
Recently, $BAKE and $HIFI have seen explosive increases of 5-10 times.
Sha Ge analyzes the reasons for these increases:
The attention gained from delisting + improved external liquidity + the continued existence of the contract
gives market makers significant room for manipulation. As long as they still hold some coins
This wave of activity wasn't handled properly, and they didn't pay enough attention after the Bake.
Sha Ge analyzes how delisting reduces trading costs:
The resulting sell-offs also give market makers an opportunity to recapture their holdings.
The certainty of short selling also provides a source of profit for market makers.
They don't have to meet Binance's various constraints.
Qi Ge analyzes the long-short logic:
Bake's price increased 5 times before, and HiFi's price increased 10 times between last night and this morning. Both saw positive fees. This indicates that there are more long positions.
Previous instances of multiple-fold increases would have driven fees to negative levels.
With fewer short sellers now, a short market crash is unlikely, making it more likely to occur in a single wave.
The ratio of short sellers is smaller than the ratio of long sellers. This means that some people are still shorting. Furthermore, after the market makers drive up the price, some will buy in, chasing the gains, and then sell to drive the market down. It's highly likely a one-time move, with the market makers selling and then abandoning their positions. Of course, there's a certain probability of this happening. It's also possible that this could happen repeatedly, but I think the probability is lower. Because of the decreasing trend, retail investor sentiment is also decreasing. If there's a short-term market crash, the market will remain strong. The combination of funding rates and short-term crashes is crucial, so the price needs to be pushed up and maintained. When Alpaca was delisted, it was incredibly popular. Everyone believed that if it was pushed up too much, it would inevitably fall, leading to a large number of short sellers. Then Alpaca became a success, seemingly increasing its value by over 100 times. But everyone has memories, and after Alpaca, people are less likely to short delisted coins. Then there's the alpha token, MYX, which was the first to break out, increasing its value by hundreds of times. Everyone also believed it was bound to fall, believing its valuation was too high. Therefore, many people are shorting.
Be patient.
We already have the muscle memory and understanding from these two battles.