My bold prediction: Regardless of the path, the market will push BTC to a new high or near it before the CPI release on August 12th. Then, if the CPI doesn't support a September rate cut, all bets are off.
This means that if the daily OBV finds support at or slightly below the EMA, a bull market will form in 12 days.
Statistics: My bold prediction has an accuracy rate of only 10%.