BTC future 24-hour trend forecast * Key range: $108,000-109,300 (4-hour Bollinger Band middle track + Fibonacci 0.236 resistance). * Upward scenario (55% probability): If it breaks through $109,300, it will activate buying momentum, with a target of $110,600. Trigger conditions include dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve or news of institutional holdings. * Downside risk (45% probability): If it falls below $107,800, it may trigger stop-loss selling pressure and go down to $107,200 (channel bottom). Trigger conditions include escalation of geopolitical conflicts or regulatory black swan events. Operational suggestions: If it breaks through $109,300, you can chase long, with a stop loss set at 108,000; if it falls below $107,800, you can go short, with a target of 107,200. Summary and Strategy The current market is in a "news vacuum period", the expectation of interest rate cuts and high regulatory pressure form a long-short tug-of-war, and $108,000 has become a psychological defense line. Investors need to keep a close eye on three signals: 1. The Fed officials' statement on the September interest rate cut; 2. Whether the blockade of Turkey's DEX will trigger a chain regulatory reaction; 3. Changes in the open interest of BTC derivatives (the current volume is shrinking and the price is stable, and the volume needs to be increased to confirm the direction). Short-term volatility may intensify, but the medium- and long-term bull market structure has not been broken-the callback can be regarded as a layout opportunity. Risk warning: If Trump's tariff policy (up to 70%) is implemented, it may trigger a resonance decline in global risk assets. Be alert to the liquidity shock of the correlation between BTC and US stocks rising above 0.8.