Samsara Community July 5 News 1. The Fed's interest rate cut path is revised again (importance: 30%) * Event: After the non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, the market's probability of a rate cut in September rose to 68% (+12% from yesterday), and Nationwide's chief economist predicted a 25 basis point rate cut in September, October, and December. * Analysis: Despite the strong employment data, Powell may adopt a "non-commitment rate cut" strategy, and the expectation of liquidity easing is still the core support of the crypto market. BTC rebounded after hitting the bottom of 107,200 last night, reflecting that bulls are extremely sensitive to policies. 2. Vitalik calls for the legalization of privacy tools (importance: 25%) * Event: Vitalik issued a post to support developers in building backdoor-free privacy tools, citing FinCEN guidelines to emphasize that "anonymous software does not fall within the scope of money transmission regulation", and supported the trial of the founder of Tornado Cash. * Analysis: Directly beneficial to the privacy track (such as ZEC, MONERO), but the risk of regulatory conflict increases. If the US Department of Justice responds strongly, it may suppress ETH's short-term sentiment, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate will be under pressure (currently at 0.054). 3. Bahrain Central Bank's first stablecoin regulatory framework (importance: 20%) * Event: Bahrain Central Bank launched a stablecoin issuer licensing system, allowing compliant stablecoins anchored to multiple fiat currencies, emphasizing investor protection and market transparency. * Analysis: Middle Eastern countries are accelerating their embrace of compliant stablecoins to offset the negative impact of Turkey's blockade of DEX. In the long run, the expansion of the fiat currency channel will attract sovereign funds to enter the market, but the direct impact on BTC in the short term is limited. 4. Turkey's blockade of DEX sets a regulatory precedent (importance: 15%) * Event: Turkey blocked PancakeSwap for the first time on the grounds of "unauthorized services", and affected platforms such as CryptoRadar. Analysts warned that Uniswap and Raydium may become the next target. * Analysis: Decentralized protocols are facing global regulatory crackdowns, and DEX trading volume may shrink in the short term (especially local users account for more than 8%), which is good for CEX platform coins (such as BNB). 5. Traditional enterprises cross-border Bitcoin mining (importance: 10%) * Event: Japanese clothing brand Mac House invested $12 million to enter BTC mining and cooperated with Zero Field to balance the "holding + mining" strategy. * Analysis: Traditional capital explores the integration of the encryption industry chain and verifies the long-term value narrative of BTC. However, mining company stocks (such as MARA) did not rise significantly, reflecting that the market is more concerned about short-term liquidity.