There are two Spaces today, so I may not be able to express my views immediately when the non-farm data is released, so let me talk about it before the data. For me personally, the most critical data of non-farm data are: Unemployment rate > Employment > Wage data Because both the Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech use unemployment rate as an important factor in measuring the US economy. Powell even said at the last interest rate meeting that if the unemployment rate does not rise, he will not consider additional interest rate cuts. So the unemployment rate is a very important data for the Fed. At present, the previous value is 4.2% and the market expectation is 4.3%. Although it has only increased by 0.1%, the market may take the path of "expecting economic downturn, the Fed defending interest rate cuts". Of course, this is what the market thinks, and it may not be what the Fed will implement. This is the same as the ADP data -3.3, which is to celebrate a funeral with a happy ending, and use bad data as good data (short-term), so my personal judgment is: 4.2% (economic stability) <= unemployment rate <= 4.3% (economic expectations downturn) <= 4.5% (recession expectations rise) In layman's terms, if the unemployment rate is 4.2% or lower, it means that the resilience of the US economy is good. Although it reduces the possibility of the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts, at least the economy is stable. If it is greater than 4.2% but less than 4.5%, the probability of the US economy going down is very high, and the market will think that the Fed still has a chance to defend and use interest rate cuts to reduce economic downturn. But if it is higher than 4.5%, it exceeds the Fed's expectations, because the Fed's expectation for the neutral value of the unemployment rate is 4.5%. Although it will increase the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market also expects the probability of an economic recession to increase. Then there is the number of employed people. The higher the number, the better. The higher the number, the more stable the US economy is, more people have jobs, social order is stable, and wages are roughly the same. Although the increase in wages means that inflation will be more stubborn, it also shows that the US economic situation is still good. Companies are willing to pay high wages, after all, there are better profits. If wages fall, economic expectations will be poor. Of course, these are my personal judgments and may not be accurate. This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN｜Dex With ApeX