I just had a meeting all night and came back to find that the ADP data for June was a bit explosive. It was -33,000, which means that private sector employment not only did not grow, but there was a net decrease. Negative ADP values are usually a precursor to weak non-farm employment. If Thursday's non-farm employment report continues to be significantly lower than expected, the market's confidence in a soft landing of the economy will begin to collapse. It should be a sign of recession, but why did the market rise? Because the market has turned to betting on a hard landing of the economy + rapid interest rate cuts + expectations for a new round of QE. If it really goes this way, it means that the next interest rate cut may not be a good thing. It will change from a normal interest rate cut due to reduced inflation to a defensive interest rate cut to prevent an economic recession. Of course, there have been many cases where the ADP data and non-farm data are completely different, so the specific non-farm data still needs to be announced on Thursday. The current market is a typical expectation that bad data is good data. This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN｜Dex With ApeX