Author: Yashu Gola, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance Ethereum’s native token, Ethereum, has fallen to its lowest point in years, prompting analysts to predict further declines in Ethereum in the coming weeks. Declined Knife Warnings Further Intensify Sales Risk On March 13, ETH/BTC (a currency pair that tracks the strength of Ethereum against Bitcoin) fell by more than 1.50% to $0.022, the lowest level since May 2020. The decline in ETH is part of its multi-year downtrend, beginning with a record high of $0.156 in June 2017. ETH has plummeted by more than 85% since then, highlighting the weakness of Ethereum against Bitcoin. Meanwhile, on the two-week ETH/BTC chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has fallen to an all-time low of 23.32. ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView Typically, when RSI falls below 30, it indicates an oversold situation, which can lead to a rebound in prices. However, in the case of Ethereum, RSI continued to decline after two months of oversold, indicating that the downward trend of ETH is still accelerating rather than stabilizing. Cryptocurrency analyst Alessandro Ottaviani describes this situation as a “falling knife” scenario—a term used to describe assets experiencing a rapid and dramatic decline that often prevents buyers from stepping in prematurely. The fall of the knife means that if the downward trend continues, attempting to buy assets at low points may lead to further losses. To signal a potential reversal of Ethereum, traders will focus on the stability of RSI and the recovery of key resistance levels. Ideally, this began with a rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, which limited ETH/BTC’s downside attempt in December 2020, resulting in a 300% rebound. ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView If there is a rebound, the ETH/BTC pair can rebound to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line, which is approximately 0.038 BTC, consistent with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; red wave). Prior to this, the technical prospects suggest that ETH/BTC may still be stuck in its downward knife trajectory, with the next potential downward target at the historical support level in the range of 0.020-0.016 BTC. ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView The lowest point in this range is about 30% lower than the current price level. ETH/BTC fundamentals support bearish outlook The prospect of further declines against Bitcoin is due to factors other than technical analysis. For example, Ethereum is currently facing fierce competition from its competitor's first-tier blockchain, Solana. VanEck noted that Solana's decentralized transaction volume exceeded Ethereum even as memecoin trading activity plummeted. Meanwhile, Solana's trading volume has been rising continuously in recent months, while Ethereum's trading volume has been declining. Solana vs. Ethereum DEX trading volume comparison. Source: VanEck In addition, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally changed the traditional cryptocurrency market cycle that has been favorable to Ethereum and other altcoins in the past. Historically, capital turns to altcoins after the Bitcoin halving soared, triggering a “altcoin season” where ETH and other assets outperformed BTC. However, the $129 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 disrupted the cycle, exhausting liquidity in the wider altcoin market, including Ethereum. Bitcoin-dominated index weekly price chart. Source: TradingView Another factor is the selling pressure unique to Ethereum. Recent Bybit hacks have reportedly resulted in massive ETH liquidation, with some of the value being whitewashed through decentralized platforms such as Thorchain. This absorbed sell-off may still affect the entire market, depressing the relative value of ETH.